In the 210 counties that make up “Immigration Nation,” which are primarily in the Southwest, the economy and immigration are tied closely together. Cross-border traffic is a big economic factor.

In the past two years, as America has struggled with economic problems, the effects for “Immigration Nation” have multiplied.

Tighter attitudes toward immigration, combined with a smaller flow of people from Mexico, are dramatically altering the landscape.

2008 marked the first time since 1970 that America’s foreign-born population decreased, according to recent data from the US Census Bureau. Earlier this year, Janet Napolitano, secretary of US Homeland Security, said the economic challenges had led to a drop in illegal immigration. More-strict rules on border security, implemented in the wake of 9/11, have further impeded the flow.

In “Immigration Nation,” this has spelled economic trouble.

Traffic and spending slows

Last month KJZZ, a public radio station in Arizona, aired a report detailing the problems that businesses on both sides of the border have had as security measures have tightened. The customer base for those businesses have become much harder to reach. In Arizona, legal border crossings have dropped by 15 percent in recent years.

And the people who do come to the businesses simply spend less.

It’s hard to overestimate how much the economies in “Immigration Nation” are tied to cross-border traffic. Small businesses employ immigrants. Fewer immigrants mean fewer employees, as well as fewer consumers.

This spring, when we visited El Mirage, Ariz., an “Immigration Nation” community in Maricopa County, we heard from people about a definite drop in temporary residents. Many were instead headed to locales further north where there might be work, or they were simply heading home, according to Roy Delgado, a city councilman in the city.

That trend seems to have continued, according to Rachel Gomez, co-owner of the Rio Mirage Cafe.

“The immigration population is either changing, or people just aren’t going out to dinner or shopping or any of that sort of thing where they might be picked up by our sheriff,” she wrote in an e-mail. “In any case they are not working anymore, therefore not paying FICA [for Social Security and Medicare] and federal taxes, which they will never receive anyway.”

Further impact

Mr. Gomez says she never hires people without the proper documentation and she herself was born and raised in this country. But “her sheriff,” Maricopa County’s Joe Arpaio, has made illegal immigration a main issue, and sometime her friends can run into trouble.

The personal impact of immigration is vast, says Sylvia Rivera, who owns a local sewing business and who is also a US citizen. “I was personally touched by this when my friend’s husband was picked up and sent back to Mexico,” she wrote in an e-mail. “He’s been here for 11 years and has always been illegal.”

Ms. Rivera writes that the family should have taken care of that issue a long time ago, but she still feels bad for them. Regardless, the result is not just a hit to the people she knows, but also a hit to the broader local economy.

There is no easy answer, of course. Illegal immigration will continue to be a hot-button issue for the foreseeable future.

Combining that issue with economic problems, however, puts “Immigration Nation” communities in a unique and difficult spot. Recovery here could be a long, hard road.

The gubernatorial wins in Virginia (expected) and New Jersey (a bit of a surprise) are reassuring. But New York’s 23rd Congressional District, where party infighting helped Democratic candidate Bill Owens, sits out there like a big warning sign.

To recap that race: Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman choked off funding and support for Republican Dede Scozzafava, who eventually left the race. Ms. Scozzafava then endorsed Mr. Owens, and he won by about 5,000 votes – as Scozzafava captured about 6,000 protest votes.

As much as Republicans wanted to win the seat, some of them also reasoned that if Owens won the race, there would be widespread recognition that intraparty squabbling was at fault. So far, that doesn’t appear to have happened.

High-profile members of the more conservative wing of the GOP – former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – have already announced that they will support conservative challengers to Republican front-runners in US Senate races in Florida and California. That could present trouble for the party in those places.

What happened in NY-23?

As we noted in Monday’s post, New York’s 23rd district held some peril for the GOP. It went for Barack Obama in 2008. In Patchwork Nation’s eyes, it is largely made up of small-town “Service Worker Center” counties. These tend to lean Republican, but they are more exposed to economic problems than some other places and are thus less tethered to political ideology.

When the results for the district were tallied, Owens’ margin of victory mostly came from three counties – Clinton, Franklin, and St. Lawrence. Owens would have won all those counties even without the Scozzafava protest vote.

What do they have in common? They all are thinly populated, and they have some of the area’s higher unemployment rates – between roughly 8 and 10 percent. St. Lawrence in particular is dotted with small colleges. And they went heavily for Mr. Obama in 2008 – between 57 and 61 percent of their votes.

Owens didn’t get quite those numbers, but voters in these counties still seem willing to give the Democratic Party more time in control in Washington.

Looking ahead to 2010

So what does all that mean for a potentially divided GOP in those Florida and California Senate races? It isn’t good.

The community types heavily represented in Florida and California could present real problems for Republicans if conservatives split the vote or force the eventual nominee to lean further right.

The east coast of Florida has densely populated “Monied ’Burbs” and Latino-heavy “Immigration Nation” counties. Both of those community types went for Obama in 2008. Tampa, as well as north of Tampa, contains a lot of diversifying “Boom Town” counties. Those places tend to lean Republican, but they also tend to be more moderate and could be put off by a divisive fight.

In California, the terrain is much tougher. The biggest chunks of the state’s population live in the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” and “Monied ’Burb” counties. Those places went heavily for Obama in 2008. The GOP might have a chance at winning those counties if it has a very moderate candidate and the economy is poor. Even in that scenario, the fight would be difficult. But a conservative Republican nominee would probably make it all but impossible.

The point of the community types in Patchwork Nation is to show that different types of places are motivated by different issues and ideas. Political views that work well in, say, Nixa, Mo. – our socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenter” – are very different from those that sell in Eagle, Colo., our “Boom Town.” We’ve chronicled such differences for almost two years now.

Then again, for many Republicans, the fight is over the party’s soul, not over winning seats in Congress. And applying more of a one-size-fits-all approach may help clarify a party’s identity.

But it will be a tough sell in the big “county” of America, with more than 300 million people – and with all 12 community types.

After a string of electoral defeats, supporters of gay-marriage rights thought they might have a winner in Maine. The New England state has an ingrained strain of stay-out-of-my-business libertarianism. But 53 percent of voters (according to the tally early Wednesday morning) did not support the law.

Yet when the results are looked at through the prism of Patchwork Nation, they’re not completely unexpected.

Much of Maine is made up small-town “Service Worker Centers,” and those communities tend to lean against gay marriage. According to our analysis of a recent poll from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, more than 65 percent of those in “Service Worker Centers” oppose legalizing same-sex marriage.

The fight over gay marriage isn’t going away, however. And a look at the opinions in Patchwork Nation’s 12 community types shows how complicated the views on same-sex marriage are. It also shows how hard any efforts to legalize gay marriage may be.

Where the support is

Only two of the 12 community types show strong, solid majorities in “favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally,” according to data from the Pew Research Center survey, which was in August. In the relatively wealthy “Monied ’Burbs,” about 55 percent offer support. In the collegiate “Campus and Careers” counties, that number is about 58 percent. (A third community, the aging “Emptying Nests,” look be to very slightly in favor.)

The one “Monied ’Burb” county in Maine – Cumberland – supported the gay-marriage law by big margins – more than 60 percent as of 1 a.m. Wednesday. Meanwhile, the three “Service Worker Center” counties immediately around Cumberland voted against keeping the law. (Maine does not have any “Campus and Careers” counties.)

What can we say about America’s “ ’Burbs” and “Campus and Careers” counties? Both community types voted for Barack Obama last November by sizable margins.

But understanding the voter breakdown on the gay marriage is more complicated than simply looking at the last presidential race. Take, for example, the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” counties. Mr. Obama won them in a landslide, with 68 percent of the vote – the most of any community type. On the whole, however, they are not in favor of gay marriage. About 55 percent oppose it, according to the results from the Pew Research Center poll.

That number isn’t too different from the one in the “Military Bastions.” In these places, 58 percent oppose gay marriage. And this community type voted for John McCain last November.

The breakdown on gay marriage, in other words, has to do with more than politics. Broader cultural issues come into play.

The terrain ahead

For supporters of same-sex marriage, a look at Patchwork Nation shows difficulties in building a strategy around just the friendly territory of the “Monied ’Burbs” and “Campus and Careers.” Yes, the “Monied ’Burbs” are populous, but in most states, they are counterbalanced by large areas of land that contain other community types. And although “Campus and Careers” counties are spread out across the United States, there are not many of them overall, and they tend to be more isolated.

With these limitations in gay-marriage support, proponents of same-sex marriage may find voter referendums a hard place to win for a while.

After the election, the media will sort through the votes and look for a larger political meaning, probably focusing most intently on the gubernatorial outcomes. But it may be the results from the congressional race near the Canadian border that actually mean the most.

New York’s 23rd is a sprawling district that contains all or parts of 10 counties, and nine of them are what we call “Service Worker Centers,” places dominated by small towns and lower incomes. (The other is a “Military Bastion” – Jefferson County, home of Fort Drum.) The district went for President Barack Obama by about five percentage points in 2008.

That’s not uncommon. While the “Service Worker Centers” on the whole lean Republican, their votes can move. Mr. Obama lost those counties nationally by about four percentage points in 2008. Four years earlier, Sen. John Kerry lost them by 12 points.

In other words, the “Service Worker Centers” became more of a swing group in the 2008 election. That’s what makes New York’s 23rd so interesting.

A Republican family fight

The 23rd has long been a Republican district, but a fairly moderate one. Its former representative was John McHugh, whom Obama selected to be his secretary of the Army. Until recently, the election looked to be a three-way race between Democratic nominee Bill Owens, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.

But over the weekend, Assemblywoman Scozzafava dropped out of the race because she was sure she was going to lose. Her hopes had been slammed by Mr. Hoffman, a conservative businessman from Lake Placid.

Hoffman’s candidacy caught fire and became something of a cause célèbre within the GOP. The feeling was that Scozzafava, who is pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, and was endorsed by an organization with ties to the liberal group ACORN, was too far left for the Republicans even in a moderate district.

Even before Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman’s supporters included talk show hosts Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. “Political parties must stand for something,” Ms. Palin wrote. “When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of ‘blurring the lines’ between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections.”

The conservative support and money that have poured into the district are signs that the right of the Republican Party is trying to send a message. And Scozzafava’s departure might be read as: “message received.”

What will Tuesday mean?

Before Scozzafava’s departure, the race was a dead heat between Mr. Owens and Hoffman. Though Sozzafava endorsed Owens, it’s not yet clear where her votes will go. But the stakes are pretty big.

A Hoffman victory will be characterized as a big win for the conservative wing of the GOP – and rightfully so – but it might also be a sign of a turbulent year for the Republicans in 2010.

There are community types in Patchwork Nation that will welcome a conservative victory – the socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenters” and rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” among them.

But there are also big districts around the country like the 23rd full of “Service Worker Centers” that are less ideological when they cast their votes. With lower incomes than most communities and higher unemployment, they tend to be focused short term on economic concerns. And they may be less interested in casting votes for the conservative movement than they are in casting protest votes against the party in power.

Keep in mind, the 2009 election in the 23rd is a special election (not part of the regular two-year cycle), and special elections tend to bring out the most politically active – the most liberal and the most conservative. That will probably be a big help to Hoffman Tuesday.

But 2010 will offer more of a standard-looking electorate.

If Hoffman wins in New York’s 23rd, expect to see a lot more candidates like him in 2010, though that might not be a good thing for the GOP in moderate districts.

This month’s Economic Hardship Index, for the first time, may provide a positive answer. By almost every measure in October, the index paints an improving picture in most of our 12 community types. Patchwork Nation calculates the index using economic indicators that include gasoline prices, foreclosures, and unemployment.

The average hardship score for all the community types dropped to 22.58 in October from 24.76 last month. The hardship scores fell in every one of the 12 community types except the “Mormon Outposts.” Those communities, which are primarily in the West, were hurt by gasoline prices and foreclosure rates that rose slightly.

Unemployment, meanwhile, fell in all our community types.

It’s probably still too early to declare that the economy is on the road to recovery. But these figures show that at least for this month, things are looking better in many ways.

Differences from place to place

Even in this month’s scores, however, there are clear differences among community types.

Rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” counties are again seeing the lowest hardship score – 19.74 in October. Those counties stand apart in a few ways: an extremely low unemployment rate of 5 percent and an almost nonexistent foreclosure rate of 0.15 per 1,000 homes. Those numbers are down from last month’s, and they are by far the lowest in any of our community types.

The hardship index measures short-term changes in economic distress – so small changes from month to month can mean movement in the scores. That’s why the “Evangelical Epicenter” counties experienced a drop in their hardship score, from 24.60 in September to 19.89 in October. This month’s score took into account that in “Evangelical Epicenters,” the August unemployment rate declined slightly and September gasoline prices fell by about 5 percent. (These statistics are the most recent available for calculating the October scores.)

A similar thing happened in the wealthy and educated “Monied ’Burbs.” These communities saw a drop in foreclosures and slight drops in the unemployment rate and gasoline prices to earn a hardship score of 19.95 this month.

However, the “Mormon Outposts” did not see the same kinds of improvements. Their hardship score went from 24.10 in September to 31.55 in October. That’s partly because gasoline prices in the West have been so high – particularly in Utah and Idaho, where many of the “Outposts” are located.

Troubles remain

Even in some places where things are looking better, they are not looking great. Take, for instance, the small-town “Service Worker Centers.”

The economic outlook in these communities improved only marginally in this index – a score of 25.43 versus 25.97 in September. Foreclosures there rose by 12 percent between July and September. Unemployment dropped in September, but it is still high – at 10.13 percent.

Another community type seeing limited improvement is the big-city “Industrial Metropolis.” While its hardship score went down to 23.43 in October – from 26.66 in September – its unemployment rate has hardly moved: In August, it was 10.29 percent, and in September, it was a barely better 10.25 percent.

The real improvement in the “Industrial Metropolis” came from a drop in foreclosures – down about 9 percent since July.

What does a recovery look like?

In the coming months, the numbers within the hardship index – gasoline prices, foreclosures, and unemployment – may be as interesting to watch as the index itself.

If indeed the United States is in the early stages of an economic recovery, that recovery will not be uniform. Our different community types will see different sorts of improvements, and some will see more than others. The numbers in the index will help show what is going on.

The differences in what our community types are experiencing economically will play a big role in coming policy debates – whether aid is needed, how much, and where. The differences will also play a big role in the elections of 2010.

But is that spending primarily investment for the future or additional debt? Nearly all our Patchwork Nation communities see it as the latter, according to a poll from Zogby International filtered through Patchwork Nation’s 12 community types  – though there are big differences in how strongly the various communities hold that view.

And when you compare how our 12 community types feel about the spending with how some of that money is being spent, you get an odd result.

The places that most favor federal stimulus spending – the big city “Industrial Metropolis” counties – look to get the least out of highway stimulus funding, as we noted last week. Meanwhile, one of the community types most opposed to the Obama administration’s spending – rural “Tractor Country” counties – look to get the most of the highway money per capita.

That may be significant for coming elections.

The country/city divide

The difference in attitudes between the communities is not a surprise.

“Tractor Country” voted heavily for Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain last fall, giving him 64 percent of the vote. Their attitudes toward debt are different from other community types. Only 25 percent of the bank branches located in “Tractor Country” took any money from the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) – the least of any Patchwork community type.

Contrast that with the “Industrial Metropolis” communities. In those counties, Mr. Obama captured 68 percent of the vote in the 2008 election. There is more comfort with debt overall – or at least more experience with it – in these places. More than half the bank branches in “Industrial Metropolis” counties took money from the TARP program – the highest percentage among all the community types.

That’s what makes the proportion of federal highway stimulus dollars going to those places somewhat odd. As we noted last week, the “Industrial Metros” with high unemployment, are on tap to ultimately receive about $4 per capita out of that pool of money. Meanwhile, “Tractor Country” counties, which have low unemployment, are set to receive more than $1,100 a head.

Highway funds were projected to generate about half of the jobs out of the stimulus.

Not everyone in “Tractor Country” is thrilled with the expenditure. Thomas County, Neb., received about $12,000 per capita thanks to one big project, but the majority of people there feel the project is a waste, ProPublica reported earlier this year.

Political danger ahead?

All those numbers could potentially have a big impact on the nation’s political climate at a moment when allegiances seem somewhat fluid.

Whether you believe the Obama administration’s spending was right or wrong, there is little doubt that the size of the debt will be a major issue for the White House and the Democratic Party going forward.

If the economy begins to grow quickly again relatively soon, the debt may be largely forgiven by voters.

But there are signs of political peril, especially with regard to how the stimulus has been handled.

Poll numbers show that even in communities where Obama did well in 2008 – such at the wealthy “Monied ’Burb” counties, where he grabbed 55 percent of the vote – there are serious concerns about debt. Those concerns will only grow if the economy stays down.

If things don’t improve, people in the 12 Patchwork community types may begin to look at the stimulus with great skepticism. Places that got money may raise questions about whether they got too much. And places that wanted the money may wonder whether they got enough.

The 287 counties identified as “Tractor Country” in Patchwork Nation have received an average of $144 per capita in stimulus highway dollars, according to a new analysis by the Patchwork Nation project and ProPublica, an independent nonprofit news organization. That is by far the largest per capita amount.

The next closest, at $21 per capita, are the 362 counties of “Minority Central” (places with many African-Americans or native Americans). Bringing up the rear are America’s 41 big-city counties – the “Industrial Metropolis.” They have secured only 41 cents per capita.

This analysis measures dollars from the stimulus that are going to road and bridge projects in specific counties as of Sept. 25. It does not include statewide grants that may be spent in any number of jurisdictions. The dollars that could be tracked to a specific county, however, make up the bulk of the transportation money spent so far – more than 90 percent.

A few trends are apparent from our analysis. First, the money is being dispersed slowly: In most of our 12 community types, only about 10 percent has been spent. Second, in many cases, it is not going to the places that arguably need it most – the places with the highest levels of unemployment.

Harvesting cash?

As big a winner as “Tractor Country” is in the money already spent, it stands to do even better as the obligated money is dispersed. An additional $2.2 billion is set to be spent in “Tractor Country,” a whopping $1,137 per person. No other community type comes close: “Minority Central” is second in obligated money, with $147 per person.

What’s behind the big money flowing into agricultural America? Without question, part of it has to do with the sparse population there. Only 1.9 million people live in the 287 counties of “Tractor Country.” In general, a smaller number of people can mean higher per capita numbers.

For instance, $6.9 million in transportation funding is slated to go to one big project in Thomas County, Neb., which has roughly 600 residents. That works out to about $11,000 per capita.

But the money flowing to “Tractor Country” is about more than empty acres. Simply put, more dollars have been directed toward these counties. Only two community types are targeted to receive more than the $2.2 billion of “Tractor Country”: the small-town “Service Worker Centers” ($4.3 billion) and the diversifying “Boom Towns” ($2.8 billion).

There are some good arguments for “Tractor Country” receiving more money. Here’s one: Many streets in these places could use paving and/or widening. For instance, you don’t have to drive too far outside Sioux Center, Iowa – a “Tractor Country” community we regularly visit – before you come upon gravel.

But if the focus of the transportation stimulus is to create jobs – Congress said that transportation projects would create more than half of the envisioned 3.5 million jobs from the stimulus – then “Tractor Country” might not be the best choice for funds. Other places could probably use a more direct infusion of aid.

Where the jobs aren’t

As we have noted often, “Tractor Country” has weathered the recession relatively easily – so far anyway. While the national unemployment figure hovers near 10 percent, in “Tractor Country” it is roughly half that – just a bit more than 5 percent.

The places hit hardest in the recession so far have been “Minority Central,” which has an unemployment rate of about 12 percent, and the “Service Worker Centers” and the “Industrial Metropolis” – both with unemployment rates over 10 percent.

When you look at the money obligated to those three community types, two of them look pretty good. As we already noted, “Minority Central” counties are set to receive about $147 in transportation projects per person. The figure for the “Service Worker Centers” is $145 per person. Those numbers are a far cry from $1,137 person, but better than anywhere else.

The “Industrial Metropolis,” however, stands out for how little it is set to receive: not even $4 per person.

The recession may linger in “Industrial Metropolis” counties, which have large numbers of people living in poverty who may need assistance from strapped city governments.

Other community types with high unemployment are receiving less from the transportation portion of the stimulus. The wealthy and suburban “Monied ’Burbs,” for example, have an unemployment rate near 9 percent, but they’re set to receive only about $28 per capita.

ProPublica has written about this trend before and noted that it stems from Congress disbursing money based on old formulas focused more on miles of road and miles traveled than on economic need. Regardless of reason, the impact is noticeable in these figures.

Not evenly spread

These figures average the highway stimulus over the entirety of our community types. If you look county by county, some places have received lots of money and projects, while others have received none.

You may, in other words, live in a “Monied ’Burb” that has received money for a big highway project, even though the overall picture for “Monied ’Burbs” looks very different.

Those national numbers have a lot to do with the larger economy – and with the national recovery.

But don’t forget the power of the immigration debate.

In at least one of Patchwork Nation’s community types, the “Evangelical Epicenters,” that debate is already producing hard feelings and angry words. You can hear the noise pretty clearly in Nixa, Mo. – an “Epicenter” just outside of Springfield, which is home to the headquarters of the Assemblies of God, the world’s largest Pentecostal church.

In many “Epicenters,” the churches themselves may be split.

The resolution and the noise

The increase in the volume level of the immigration debate stems from a resolution in early October from the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) calling for immigration reform.

“Our churches and communities have been blessed by immigrants, many of whom bring strong faith, entrepreneurial energy and traditional family values that strengthen our future,” Galen Carey, NAE director of government affairs, said in a press release. “At the same time, some of our communities have struggled to cope with the impact of unregulated immigration.”

The resolution focuses heavily on how immigrants should be treated. Among the items it calls for: National borders must be safeguarded with efficiency and respect for human dignity; immigration laws should recognize the central importance of the family; and a clear and workable system should be in place for legally admitting an adequate number of immigrants to meet both workforce and family-reunification needs.

The resulting debate has been particularly vigorous in the Assemblies of God (AG). Patchwork Nation blogger John Schmalzbauer alerted us to the controversy last week.

The AG general superintendent, George O. Wood, has taken to the Internet to speak to followers about the resolution. He promises that the resolution (as well as the AG) does not support amnesty for illegal immigrants, but he also uses Scripture to talk about the need to care for immigrants. “If you look at Scripture carefully, you know that one of the reasons that Pharaoh of Egypt was judged so severely was because of his treatment of the children of Israel who were aliens in his land,” he says.

In a different Web video, Wood also asks people to tone down the anger and rhetoric. “Let’s also keep the conversation civil. When people call and start swearing at our people that are answering the phone, you just have to say this is way overheated.”

Mr. Schmalzbauer wrote in an e-mail about Dr. Wood’s remarks: “This statement is notable because of its call for civility. It’s also interesting to see the head of an evangelical body like the AG address the tone of the national conversation.”

Concerns in the ‘Epicenters’

As Prof. James Gimpel noted in a recent Patchwork Nation post, the “Evangelical Epicenters” are among the most concerned about the impact of immigration. In our analysis of an independent survey, two-thirds of people that live in these places said that the growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens traditional American customs and values.

On our trips to Nixa, we have heard those sentiments expressed in more subtle ways, such as complaints about grocery items featuring labels in Spanish as well as English.

What’s interesting about this current debate, however, is the light it sheds on the fissures within religious conservatives. The leadership of the Assemblies of God sees one direction, and parts of the rank and file see another. Such divisions are probably true of many of the 40-plus churches within the National Association of Evangelicals.

Those differences may lead to larger shake-ups in some of these churches, where disagreements have already come up issues like global warming. And these kinds of shake-ups could alter the politics of the “Epicenters” – in 2010 and beyond.

The report does have a few bright spots. For example, the rate actually fell by 4 percent from August to September.

When we look at how Patchwork Nation’s representative communities did in this report, we see a mix of good and bad news. Some places saw improvement between August and September, while others did worse.

But if you look carefully at the numbers, you begin to realize that more is going on than simple month-to-month moves. The bigger picture is much more complex – and reveals the hole that the housing market is in.

Trouble behind the numbers

Take Arizona’s Maricopa County, home of El Mirage, a Latino-heavy “Immigration Nation” community. It looks like it had a good September overall, with foreclosures down 16 percent from August. But that’s down 16 percent from soaring heights.

In September in Maricopa, 10,797 housing units – one of every 142 – were in some state of foreclosure. Those numbers are up 12 percent from a year ago.

Many “Immigration Nation” communities, located heavily in the Southwest, had good growth in the first half of the decade and are seeing foreclosure problems now.

Even in places where the numbers don’t look as bad on the surface, the underlying market is weak.

For example, in Eagle County, Colo. – home of the diversifying “Boom Town” of Eagle – only 31 homes are in some state of foreclosure. That’s down 50 percent from August, when 64 homes were in foreclosure.

But the streets of Eagle are filled with “for sale” signs. More than 180 homes are on the market in a city of only about 6,000 people. That means property values have taken a big hit – dropping about 20 percent in the past year.

Stories like that abound around the country – particularly in the “Boom Towns,” which grew tremendously at the beginning of the decade and now bear the worst of the foreclosure crisis.

The big picture

To be sure, a few communities don’t tell the whole story of the economy. The larger point, however, is that nearly 23 months into the recession, the national monthly and quarterly data don’t offer the best insight, either. The problems in our 12 community types are complicated.

In the next few weeks, Patchwork Nation will look more closely at foreclosures by community type in our Economic Hardship Index.

• If you have something to ask about foreclosures, journalist Alyssa Katz – author of “Our Lot: How Real Estate Came to Own Us” – is taking questions on Paul Solman’s Business Desk blog on the “NewsHour” website.

But over the past few months, attitudes in Patchwork Nation have largely settled against healthcare reform. Ten of the 12 community types say they “generally oppose” the reform proposals “being discussed in Congress.” In August, nine of the 12 community types were opposed.

To arrive at these results, we took August and October polls from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and filtered them through Patchwork Nation’s community types. In each poll, we looked at the same question: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the healthcare proposals being discussed in Congress?

Even though 10 community types are now “generally opposed” to reform, some attitudes have shifted the other way. The firmest strongholds for President Obama, the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” counties, have seen support for the reform packages grow.

Also, some of the changes in attitude within community types suggest that something else may be going on.

The ’Burbs and the Boom Towns

Support for the reform proposals has risen not only in the big cities, but in the wealthier and suburban “Monied ’Burbs.” By a tiny margin now, people living in those communities say they “generally favor” reform – 51.1 percent. That’s up from 47 percent in August.

The change isn’t much, and it could be written off as simply within the margin of error. But it’s notable because it wasn’t a drop.

People living in the “Monied ’Burbs” theoretically have the most to lose in reform. They not only have a smaller proportion of people without health insurance – about 85 percent have coverage – but they also have more highly paid people who are likely to have good insurance – “Cadillac” plans – that could be taxed in the reform.

The ’Burbs are significant because they hold a lot of voters, many of them swing voters.

However, the reaction has been very different in the diversifying “Boom Town” counties, which are also populous but are often more exurban and conservative in character. About 42 percent in these places said they “generally favored” reform proposals in August. That number is down to almost 29 percent in this survey.

A politicized issue

A look at other specifics in the Pew poll reveals some reason to believe that the healthcare issue has simply become highly politicized. When people are surveyed about individual elements of a plan – employer mandates, higher taxes on the wealthy, even the “public option” – they’re in favor of those elements. It’s only when the items are grouped into a larger bill that people turn against the legislation.

Also, consider these comparisons – how the community types voted last November and how they say they stand on healthcare.

The two community types where people say they generally favor the plan – the “Industrial Metropolis” and the “Monied ’Burbs” – went heavily for Mr. Obama last year. (The other type that was heavily pro-Obama, our collegiate “Campus and Career” counties, is leaning heavily against reform, but it’s not clear how much the Pew poll records the views of students.)

Many of the other types tend to lean Republican and voted against Obama – including the “Boom Towns” and the rural, small-town “Service Worker Centers.” (Note: The Pew poll’s sample sizes in the “Tractor Country” and “Mormon Outpost” community types are too small to be considered statistically significant.)

In other words, it may be that the healthcare debate is less about the plan itself than about how people in our communities feel about Obama or the general state of the nation.