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If NY-23 is a glimpse at 2010, is that good for the GOP?

Dante Chinni

Posted: 11.02.2009 / 8:49 AM PST

There are three national political races everyone will have their eyes on Tuesday night – the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey and a special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

After the election, the media will sort through the votes and look for a larger political meaning, probably focusing most intently on the gubernatorial outcomes. But it may be the results from the congressional race near the Canadian border that actually mean the most.

New York’s 23rd is a sprawling district that contains all or parts of 10 counties, and nine of them are what we call “Service Worker Centers,” places dominated by small towns and lower incomes. (The other is a “Military Bastion” – Jefferson County, home of Fort Drum.) The district went for President Barack Obama by about five percentage points in 2008.

That’s not uncommon. While the “Service Worker Centers” on the whole lean Republican, their votes can move. Mr. Obama lost those counties nationally by about four percentage points in 2008. Four years earlier, Sen. John Kerry lost them by 12 points.

In other words, the “Service Worker Centers” became more of a swing group in the 2008 election. That’s what makes New York’s 23rd so interesting.

A Republican family fight

The 23rd has long been a Republican district, but a fairly moderate one. Its former representative was John McHugh, whom Obama selected to be his secretary of the Army. Until recently, the election looked to be a three-way race between Democratic nominee Bill Owens, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.

But over the weekend, Assemblywoman Scozzafava dropped out of the race because she was sure she was going to lose. Her hopes had been slammed by Mr. Hoffman, a conservative businessman from Lake Placid.

Hoffman’s candidacy caught fire and became something of a cause célèbre within the GOP. The feeling was that Scozzafava, who is pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, and was endorsed by an organization with ties to the liberal group ACORN, was too far left for the Republicans even in a moderate district.

Even before Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman’s supporters included talk show hosts Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. “Political parties must stand for something,” Ms. Palin wrote. “When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of ‘blurring the lines’ between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections.”

The conservative support and money that have poured into the district are signs that the right of the Republican Party is trying to send a message. And Scozzafava’s departure might be read as: “message received.”

What will Tuesday mean?

Before Scozzafava’s departure, the race was a dead heat between Mr. Owens and Hoffman. Though Sozzafava endorsed Owens, it’s not yet clear where her votes will go. But the stakes are pretty big.

A Hoffman victory will be characterized as a big win for the conservative wing of the GOP – and rightfully so – but it might also be a sign of a turbulent year for the Republicans in 2010.

There are community types in Patchwork Nation that will welcome a conservative victory – the socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenters” and rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” among them.

But there are also big districts around the country like the 23rd full of “Service Worker Centers” that are less ideological when they cast their votes. With lower incomes than most communities and higher unemployment, they tend to be focused short term on economic concerns. And they may be less interested in casting votes for the conservative movement than they are in casting protest votes against the party in power.

Keep in mind, the 2009 election in the 23rd is a special election (not part of the regular two-year cycle), and special elections tend to bring out the most politically active – the most liberal and the most conservative. That will probably be a big help to Hoffman Tuesday.

But 2010 will offer more of a standard-looking electorate.

If Hoffman wins in New York’s 23rd, expect to see a lot more candidates like him in 2010, though that might not be a good thing for the GOP in moderate districts.