Print this

Obama engages on healthcare with high approval, policy doubts

Dante Chinni

Posted: 09.09.2009 / 7:32 AM PDT

Less than eight months into Barack Obama’s presidency, it is far too soon to contemplate his chances at reelection. But at this early date, there seems to be one noticeable trait: dissonance between voters’ feelings about the president and feelings about his policies – or at least his party.

We found solid personal numbers for Mr. Obama when we analyzed August polls from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. But the polls also gauged whom voters might support in 2010 congressional races, and those results look much more mixed.

The Pew surveys were conducted Aug. 11-27. Our analysis shows that more than 50 percent of the respondents in all 12 community types approved of “the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president.” In a few communities, more than 60 percent said they approve.

But those same polls show that voters favored Republicans for congressional seats in several community types – including some key types.

The meaning of these numbers can be read in several ways, of course. In broad terms, it means that Obama still has political capital but that he might have some difficulty cashing it in as the healthcare debate heats up.

The state of the presidency

A dominant assessment about the Obama White House over the month of August – from the town-hall meetings on healthcare to Afghanistan – has been that it is losing ground and losing its grip on the agenda. The New York Times on Sunday referred to Obama’s “struggling presidency.” But our analysis of the Pew surveys shows a surprising level of support.

The president is still doing very well in the wealthy, educated, and usually politically split “Monied ’Burb” communities, with a 63 percent approval rating. And his base of support – the big-city, reliably liberal “Industrial Metropolis” counties – remains strongly in his corner, with a 67 percent approval rating.

Obama is also above 60 percent in the collegiate “Campus and Careers” locales and the Latino-heavy “Immigration Nation” counties.

(Note: Obama’s rating in rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” is also above 60 percent, but small sample sizes make that number somewhat unreliable. The same can be said of the “Mormon Outpost” counties.)

Now, however, consider these observations about the 2010 elections:

The Pew surveys also gauged how a “generic congressional vote” would turn out between an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican. Our analysis of this polling question, which is somewhat more focused on policy, found the following community types leaning toward the GOP: the aging “Emptying Nests” (54 percent for a Republican candidate), the small-town “Service Worker Centers” (52 percent), the growing and diversifying “Boom Towns” (51 percent), and the “Mormon Outposts” (61 percent).

The “Service Worker Centers” and “Boom Towns” are particularly key. They tend to split their votes between the two parties, and collectively, they hold 90 million people. That can affect a lot of marginal seats in Congress.

More about the man than the plan?

Like all polls, this set of numbers is just a snapshot of opinion, of course. Next month, these numbers could move. But thus far, Obama’s support has seemed to defy attitudes toward some of his policy objectives, such as healthcare reform.

As we noted in early August, most of Patchwork Nation’s community types were opposed to the reform proposals circulating around Congress. Yet this latest round of approval numbers shows that people still like his overall performance.

But as the healthcare debate goes on, it may be harder to separate the man from the plan.

One way of looking at Obama’s speech on healthcare Wednesday night is as an attempt to take those still relatively positive views and link them to healthcare reform. Before now, Obama generally tried to steer clear of the debate, but Wednesday marks his entrance into the fray more directly.

Some places, like the “Monied ’Burbs,” which hold 69 million people and largely favor the president and a “generic Democratic candidate for Congress,” may be fertile ground for Obama’s proposal. Support from these communities could be crucial in moving reform along.

But if the “Monied ’Burbs” do not approve of Obama’s proposal, their voting muscle could be a key to killing it – and they may reexamine their support of Obama.