Gun stores and the ‘Obama bullet bubble’
Dante Chinni
Posted: 08.26.2009 / 8:09 AM PDT
Even in down economic times, there are winners. Amid the rubble of failed companies, there are bright spots. In 2009, some of the highest wattage has come from weapons manufacturers.
Earlier this month, Alliant Techsystems Inc., a major ammunition manufacturer, predicted higher profits for 2009 than previously expected. A rise in gun sales, and in applications for concealed-weapon permits, has been detailed in numerous stories – such as this one and this one and well, you get the idea.
In the industry, there is talk of an “Obama bullet bubble” – rising gun and ammo sales due to fear that firearms restrictions are pending.
The Obama administration hasn’t alluded to any such plans, but people are not easily dissuaded. FBI background checks for firearm sales grew by 22 percent in the first quarter of this year and 27 percent in the second quarter.
A look at where gun stores are located in Patchwork Nation’s community types gives an indication of who is behind that rise. Gun shops are not the same as gun ownership, of course, and guns can be purchased in other ways, such as at gun shows. But large numbers of gun stores and gunsmiths per capita tend to translate into a belief that guns and gun ownership are an important part of life.
And there is a remarkably solid correlation between gun-store locations and weakness in Barack Obama’s presidential vote in 2008. These places are key sources for the “bullet bubble.”
Guns and votes
The community types where Mr. Obama captured less than 40 percent of the 2008 vote are the agricultural “Tractor Country” counties, culturally conservative “Evangelical Epicenters,” and “Mormon Outposts” (with large numbers of LDS adherents). These are also the places with the highest numbers of gun stores per capita.
“Tractor Country” leads the way with an extremely high 10 gun stores for every 100,000 people. The “Mormon Outposts” have 7.3 stores for every 100,000 people. And the “Evangelical Epicenters” come in at about 5.4.
In our travels and conversations over the past eight months, people in these locations have told us about runs on the gun stores.
In Burley, Idaho, a “Mormon Outpost,” lawyer Dave Pena told us he’d seen the gun run firsthand. “Go ask around at the gun shops. You can’t find any ammunition, and all the guns got all bought up as soon as [Obama] got elected,” he says.
In Nixa, Mo., an “Evangelical Epicenter,” there is “a lot of anxiety about gun control,” according to Patchwork Nation blogger and college professor John Schmalzbauer.
Such places are in stark contrast to the community types where Obama got at least 55 percent of the vote: the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” counties, the wealthy and mostly suburban “Monied ’Burbs,” and the collegiate “Campus and Careers” locales.
In those community types, the number of gun stores per 100,000 people is below the national average of 3. There are 2.86 gun stores per 100,000 people in “Campus and Careers.” It’s 2.35 in the “Monied ’Burbs.” And only 1 in the “Industrial Metropolis.”
These places aren’t uniformly pro-Obama. But they also aren’t where you hear concerns about the government coming to take guns away.
The cultures of Patchwork Nation
It might be tempting to look at the gun-shop numbers and say, “Well, the per capita numbers for ‘Tractor Country’ and the ‘Mormon Outposts’ are high because so few people live there overall” (only about 2 million for each community type). But it’s more than that; it’s about culture.
Consider something very different: Starbucks Coffee locations. There is one Starbucks for every 100,000 people in “Tractor Country” and 3.2 Starbucks for every 100,000 in the “Mormon Outposts.” Both numbers are below the national county average of 4.
In other words: There are places where, if you want to make money, it probably makes more sense to sell guns and ammo than lattes.
Moreover, the gun-shop numbers we’ve analyzed suggest that the “bullet bubble” is probably more of a localized, instead of national, phenomenon.
August 26th, 2009 at 10:21 am PDT
Of course Lattes probably aren’t real popular in mormon outposts also because mormons don’t drink coffee.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:18 pm PDT
A good point, but not only Mormons live in Mormon Outposts. And Tractor Country has fewer. It’s more of an urban/rural divide.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:54 pm PDT
Rio Rancho, NM 87124
8/26/09
Dear Patchwork Nation:
All this frenzy about guns & ammunition in the USA (resulting from Obama’s win last Nov.) is the height of silliness plus lack of international knowledge. In the nations of Western Europe, gun control is ubiquitous. In Ireland, which I visited recently, guns are found nowhere except in Dublin, where drug dealers shoot at each other. Hunters with guns are welcome in that country BUT MUST LEAVE THEIR WEAPONS at the nearest Guarda station except during hunting season. There are not more than 100,000 guns in all of Ireland.
I’m a pacifist, liberal, & a Theosophist.
Yours sincerely, Daniel O’Connell
August 26th, 2009 at 6:31 pm PDT
perhaps gun ownership is based more on its usefulness than anything else. Big space country lots of places to shot hunt etc. little immediate police protection.
Inner city lots of criminals or people with poor judgment - high crime rates lots of confrontation
August 26th, 2009 at 9:15 pm PDT
Readers of this publication are painfully aware of its existing bias in favor of gun control and ultimate national confiscation. It should also be noted that no other publication produces the number of articles critical of private firearms ownership. By using subliminal techniques seemingly neutral articles are in fact delivering the message that increased restrictions of private ownership of firearms is a desirable goal.
[Admin: Readers don't think this comment adds to the discussion.]
August 26th, 2009 at 10:15 pm PDT
Just try to come and get ‘em in “Tractor Country”!
August 27th, 2009 at 10:08 am PDT
[…] week The Christian Science Monitor produced a rather cryptic piece that looks at “Gun stores and the ‘Obama bullet […]
August 27th, 2009 at 1:35 pm PDT
I love the comment about coming to “tractor country” to confiscate our guns/rights. You hit the proverbial nail on the head! God, family, farming,
& hunting…4 things you don’t want to try to take away from us.
Sure, you may eventually get our guns, but not till most of us are already in prison or dead. And keep in mind that we mostly buy long guns - shotguns & rifles, not the throw-away, spray & pray saturday night specials you see druggies and bangers running around with in the city. Also keep in mind that we take pride in our ability to keep our shots in a 1-2″ circle at 200 yards when you show up at our houses to perform the confiscation. Oh, and also that we buy ammo in bulk to save money.
Fact is, guns are rarely involved in crimes in the country. So registering them and registering ammo and txing them accomplishes what for us? Nothing. And you think most criminals get their guns legally or buy their ammo at wal-mart? No…
The funny thing is that once you illegally use the military or national guard to search millions of square miles for guns (yeah, you’re going to have to if you want to confiscate even a fraction our guns and ammo), do you really think farmers are going to be willing to keep feeding you? Have fun with that.
August 27th, 2009 at 6:27 pm PDT
The elitist attitude of the wealthy and/or well-connected, well insured, is a result of a society that has been insulated from most of the world’s troubles. We have not been ravaged by war on our soil in nearly 150 years. The civil unrest that we have experienced hav been relatively localized events. The recent economic downturn would have been very interesting [sad] if it had turned into a 1930’s style depression. I do not think that our society or portions of it are going to readily stand in a soup line to get what they want/need. The right of the people, has been restated as “I got my rights” to food, a job [income], etc. We may need to be able to defend ourselves from each other.
August 27th, 2009 at 6:48 pm PDT
The urban/rural divide is as strong or stronger than ever. The more urban liberals try to force their ideals on rural folks, the greater the divide will become.
The right to defend oneself from both crime and tyranny is inherent to all human beings. It’s a sad commentary on the modern world that only in some parts of the United States of America are the people allowed to exercise such a basic human right.
When seconds count, the police are only minutes away.
August 27th, 2009 at 8:49 pm PDT
After reading this article I assume this is an example of the Monitor’s accuracy in reporting….major failure in fact checking since ammunition is in world wide shortage…..Try another publication to get a job.
August 27th, 2009 at 9:20 pm PDT
[…] Patchwork Nation: American communities in a time of change. > Patchwork Nation Blog | The Christi… patchworknation.csmonitor.com/csmstaff/2009/0826/gun-stores-and-the-%E2%80%98obama-bullet-bubble%E2%80%99
August 27th, 2009 at 11:51 pm PDT
I don’t know anybody who wants to take my guns away. I don’t think it is even possible to do. Guns can be freely sold from individual to individual, only when buying them from a firearms dealer must they be registered. If the cops showed up tomorrow asking me for my guns, I’d say “sold em to some guy, a friend of a friend of my uncle’s buddy.” They’d have to get a warrant to search for them and would be unable to establish probable cause. Moreover people in the police and military tend to be gun enthusiasts anyway, and big supporters of 2nd amendment rights, getting them to pester farmer joe about his muzzleloader is going to be difficult at best. Obama has said nary a word about gun control since he’s been in office. Republicans want to scare you into thinking democrats give a darn about gun control when it usually is about 20th on their priorities list. There is no such thing as a slippery slope. You either do a thing or you don’t.
August 28th, 2009 at 1:27 am PDT
The gun debate is a viscious circle. If everyone has a right to them then criminals will see it as necessary to carry them, and they know for sure the police ( swat) are really armed, which impacts the lunatics that go on killing sprees.
Sorry Mr and Mrs America 2nd amendment supporters those times have changed and guns are totally different, the economic and cultural environment different and police force much improved.
People being able to walk down the street close by a town hall meeting toting an automatic rifle and handgun say it all some real laws and resrtictions on the right are needed, and stop the stupid debate about visible or concealed. Thats pure lawyer talk and not commonsense!!
Remember the old adage its not the car that kills its the driver!!
Regards,
Vince.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:24 am PDT
I live in a part of Texas (town pop. 9,000; county pop. 25,000) where the (historically Republican) community is very strong — indeed, there are very few here who don’t volunteer a significant number of hours per week in anything from church and hospital to animal rescue and arts groups. Guns are part of the scene — for hunting and for competitions, but guns are not an obsessive interest. There was crossover vote for Obama, but not a huge one.
It should also be said that education is very, very important to this community. The correlation between low education level and obsessive, militant gun ownership is ….? I bet I can guess.
Nice job on the Diane Rehm show this morning, Dante! Thanks!
October 27th, 2009 at 1:24 pm PDT
“The correlation between low education level and obsessive, militant gun ownership is ….? I bet I can guess.”
How about the correlation between education and obsessive gun grabbing, gun control ?
So if a criminal busts open your door and invades your home, threatening your freedom, life and dignity, I guess you can defend yourself by brandishing your archeology post-doctorate ? That will scare them away I am sure.
I bet you own a brinks home alarm system that always drives the bad guys away according to the TV commercial. In real life, bad guys won’t be deterred by an alarm or by Berkeley diplomas.
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