Print this

What Palin’s move means for 2012

Dante Chinni

Posted: 07.05.2009 / 2:28 PM PDT

Since Sarah Palin rose out of obscurity to claim the vice president’s slot on the Republican ticket with Sen. John McCain, the press has been fascinated by her.

Friday’s sudden announcement that she would relinquish the Alaska governor’s office by the end of the month got tongues wagging again with a host of questions and reactions. Should she have resigned? What is next for her? Would it help her in a quest for the 2012 Republican nomination?

They’re all good questions. And Ms. Palin’s rambling Friday-before-July 4 statement was odd enough to make even the less politically inclined curious.

But the truth is without a major image makeover, Alaska’s soon-to-be former governor is something of a long-shot in the 2012 presidential race. In Patchwork Nation’s 12 communities, she is a divisive force.

Some places love her, others do not – and the opinion of her in key swing communities hurt McCain in 2008.

Palin’s posse

Talking with our communities around the country, there are at least two community types where people seemed to think Palin had a positive effect in 2008: the socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenters” and the rural agricultural “Tractor Country” communities.

In Nixa, Mo., an “Evangelical Epicenter,” mentions of Palin mostly draw warm smiles.

Sharon Whitehill Gary, head of the Nixa Area Chamber of Commerce, affectionately refers to Palin as “our Sarah” and says she loves her because Palin is “down to earth.” When Palin appeared in nearby Springfield in October 2008, the event had to be moved from Missouri State University’s McDonald Arena to the parking lot of a Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World so more tickets could be given away. An estimated 15,000 people attended the rally.

In Sioux Center, Iowa,  a “Tractor Country” community, Mayor Dennis Walstra and city manager Paul Clousing said they thought McCain received a big bump from Palin. She helped solidify the vote for the Arizona senator.

Those two community types – “Evangelical Epicenters” and “Tractor Country” – share some common traits. They gave McCain his biggest vote by percentage, 66 percent and 64 percent respectively. And neither is very populous, about 14 million people live in “Evangelical Epicenter” counties, while only about  2 million live in “Tractor Country.”

In other words, that may be a base for Republican candidate, but it is a base that needs a lot of building on top of it.

Skepticism in the “’Burbs”

Building on that base would not be easy for her because of the problems she has in other communities, where reactions to her often range from skepticism to outright hostility.

In Los Alamos, N.M., a “Monied ’Burb,” the critiques of Palin were often scathing. Blogger James Rickman called her “out of her league” on several occasions. Bill Enloe, Chairman and CEO of Los Alamos National Bank, said moderate democratic women in town considered Palin “not representative of their views and an affront to their cause.”

Those sentiments were echoed by reports from other “Monied ’Burb” locales across the country – and that’s trouble for Palin. The “Monied ’Burbs” will be key for the GOP in 2012.

They are the most populous community type in Patchwork Nation, with 69 million people, and they arguably won the election for President Obama. They are heavily located in key states, and they went for Obama by 11 percentage points in 2008. In 2004, they went for Democratic candidate John Kerry, but only by 1 percentage point.

Whoever gets the GOP nomination in 2012 will have to improve on the 2008 numbers.

None of this is to write off Palin. American politics is full of comeback stories. But the current edition of Palin has some problems with the middle of the electorate.

Maybe her resignation will mark the beginning of a concerted effort to reframe and reintroduce her, but at the moment all the talk of Palin’s significance for 2012 – at least in the general election – appears somewhat overstated.