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The youth vote across Patchwork Nation

James Gimpel

Posted: 12.04.2008 / 9:57 AM PST

Political parties tend to have their own life cycle, and they renew their electoral bases through generational change. Through this process, political parties can adapt themselves to changing realities.

The baby-boom generation, the large post-World War II birth cohort now in its 50s and 60s, is entering retirement and will gradually begin to drop out of the electorate. They number about 74 million. Another estimated 37 million hail from the Depression Era or earlier.

Bracketing the other end of the adult population is a sizable and fast-growing bloc under age 30, numbering 124 million. In fact, the 2006 American Community Survey estimated that 41 percent of the US population was age 29 or younger.

The upshot is that a large group is leaving the electorate and a large group is poised to replace it. Which voting habits the young voters develop as they become active will be crucial to the future of both Democrats and Republicans.

Barack Obama’s edge in the election last month among 18- to 29-year-old voters – by a 66 to 32 percent margin, according to exit polls – is good news for the Democratic Party. Conversely, it’s probably something alarming to Republicans. (Although young voters have preferred Democrats in recent elections, the margin hasn’t always been so lopsided. President Bush won 45 percent of the vote of this age group in 2004.)

As we have found in previous stories on this site, such national figures don’t account for local variation. Indeed, the youthful support for Mr. Obama was not uniform across America.

Patchwork Nation analyzed the data in a Pew Research Center survey taken the weekend before Election Day. The results show that in our wealthy, largely suburban “Monied ’Burbs,” 67 percent of those between ages 18 and 29 supported Obama. This is particularly noteworthy because only 54 percent of those age 30 or older favored him in these locales.

Similarly, in the big-city “Industrial Metropolis,” Obama won youth support by an 82 to 18 percent margin. And it was 66 to 34 percent among youths in the growing and diversifying “Boom Towns”, and 59 to 41 percent in the collegiate “Campus and Careers” communities.

Sixty percent of young people in “Minority Central” locales, which have large African-American populations and are mostly located in conservative Southern states, went for Obama. However, among voters age 30 or older in these areas, John McCain won.

“Immigration Nation” counties, which have large Hispanic populations, and “Evangelical Epicenters” obtained a similar result. In both of these community types, about 55 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds supported Obama. Among those 30 or older in these places, Senator McCain won.

The analysis of the Pew survey shows that McCain was on top among youths in two Patchwork Nation community types: “Military Bastions” (55 percent of those ages 18 to 29) and “Emptying Nests” (51 percent). McCain’s support among those over age 29 in these places was even higher.

While young people are known to be quite unstable in their political preferences, political-science research does suggest that once formed, ties to a political party are enduring.

If Republicans hope to improve their youth numbers in future election, their strategy almost certainly runs through prosperous suburbs, fast-growing communities, and college campuses. No doubt for both parties, the youth vote is the new pivot in the unceasing partisan struggle to create electoral majorities.