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Some see a recession, some a depression, but it’s bad all over

Dante Chinni

Posted: 11.21.2008 / 8:28 AM PST

Months of rising foreclosures and weeks of falling Dow figures have taken their toll on America’s confidence. Pick from any number of adjectives to sum up the current national mood – dour, glum, sullen.

But a look at the economy through the eyes of Patchwork Nation’s 11 community types shows how different the localized views of the economy are. In some places, the current troubles feel very much like a recession. For others, the word “depression” has entered the everyday lexicon.

We sorted data from a recent Pew Research Center survey, conducted just before Election Day. On the whole, there is no question that people are experiencing trying times. Only 7 percent of those polled said the economy was “excellent/good” – and that number was fairly consistent across all our community types. Almost everyone else saw real problems. More than 58 percent of Americans believed the country was in a recession, while more than 18 percent used the D word.

But variances between how the communities saw the problems are telling. For instance, people living in wealthier, better-educated suburban locales (our “Monied ’Burb” communities) were seeing a big slowdown. More than 71 percent of the people in these communities who saw trouble believed the United States was in a recession. That percentage is the highest of any of our community types.

Still, the “Monied ’Burbs” weren’t seeing echoes of the 1930s – at least not yet. Only about 15 percent of the people in these places said the US economy was in a depression.

If you think about the realities in those places, the figures make sense. In many of our “Monied ’Burbs,” the concern has been less about where the next paycheck is coming from, and more about what was in the last 401(k) statement. These communities tend to be the most heavily invested in the stock market and are probably paying more attention to the daily dips in the Dow.

Meanwhile, people in counties with large African-American and native-American populations (our “Minority Central” communities) saw an even darker horizon. Nearly 23 percent of people seeing economic trouble in these communities, which have the lowest median household income of our 11 community types, believed the US was in a depression. That is the highest percentage of all the community types.

At the same time, 57 percent of the people who live in “Minority Central” communities believed America was in a recession. That percentage is still high, but it’s actually one of the lowest among the 11 types.

The “Minority Central” numbers probably reflect two things. First, the lower-income and education levels in these places mean the people here are less insulated from economic trouble and are more likely to see jobs disappear. This could explain the feeling that times are very bad. Second, because these communities are often divided between rich and poor, there may be some people in these places who see the troubles around them but feel relatively secure. Our “Minority Central” community of Baton Rouge, La., is divided in such a way.

A look at other responses also suggests there may be something to be said for those familiar with sacrifice.

For instance, people seeing economic trouble in our “Military Bastion” communities, which are located in and around military installations, were the least pessimistic: About 17 percent of respondents there saw depression. They were also the most optimistic, with more than 18 percent saying the US was “just having a few problems.”

Those relatively sunny views came from “Military Bastions” despite the fact that the median household income in these communities is just about equal to the national average.

It may be that regularly living through life-and-death dramas makes people in these communities more stoic. Or it could be that in tough times, the security of a government job is a warm blanket.

It should be noted that all these figures come from the weekend before the election – before the new dismal unemployment data came out and before the troubles of the Big Three became such big news.

In other words, a poll taken today would quite possibly be worse.