Your guide to following election results
Dante Chinni
Posted: 11.04.2008 / 7:48 AM PST
After months of campaigning, dozens of debates, and scores of hockey-mom references, Election Day for the 2008 presidential race is finally here.
It’s been a long, fascinating race, but by Wednesday at this time, we will probably know whether Sen. John McCain (R) or Sen. Barack Obama (D) will be our next president.
We will be updating this space fairly regularly starting in the afternoon. But to get the day kicked off right, here’s our own guide for the folks around the country who will be logged on and tuned in to the coverage Tuesday.
The polls
If you are focused intently on the day’s events, you’ll probably visit a poll aggregator site – such as RealClearPolitics or Pollster.com. You may have already visited these sites to look at their electoral maps and check out their numbers.
One point of caution: There is a tendency every four years to say the election isn’t really a national race, but rather 51 little races (the states, plus the District of Columbia). There’s a lot of truth to that, of course: The state-based Electoral College does determine who wins. But if the current national trend lines hold (the ones that show Senator Obama up by six or seven percentage points), it’s unlikely that the state-by-state tally Tuesday night will produce any huge surprises.
A candidate can win the presidency without winning the popular vote – George W. Bush did it in 2000 – but the national numbers probably need to be closer.
The battlegrounds
Almost everyone will be watching some states – Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina – and here Patchwork Nation can be a real help in getting a feel for where things are headed.
If you are embracing your inner political geek, here’s an idea: Use the Patchwork Nation map in conjunction with the official election numbers, which most states post as they come in county by county. Below are some closing times for the polls, combined with key counties to watch and Web addresses for obtaining official numbers.
Virginia: When polls close at 7 p.m. in this state, it’s likely to come down to the wealthy, suburban “Monied ’Burbs” around Washington, D.C. Those counties have been growing and changing the electoral makeup of Virginia. Two counties to keep an eye on especially are Loudoun and Prince William. President Bush won those two counties and the state in 2004. If those counties go for Obama, the Illinois senator will probably be feeling pretty good. https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/publicsite/sbe%20Temp/
Ohio: Polls close at 7:30 p.m., but the results from the big Democratic counties (particularly Cuyahoga, an “Industrial Metropolis” county that is home to Cleveland) probably won’t come in until much later. For early indications, look at 2004 GOP strongholds like Ottawa and Sandusky. Those aging “Emptying Nest” counties, as well as the state, went for Bush four years ago. If Obama wins in any of them, that could signal trouble for Senator McCain. http://www.electionohio.com/
Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8 p.m. Surveys show Obama with a good-sized lead in the Keystone State, but McCain holds out hope. The suburban “Monied ’Burb” counties around Philadelphia will be key – particularly counties such as Bucks, Lehigh, and Northampton, which all went for Sen. John Kerry (D) in 2004, but by small margins. One other key county might be Centre, the “Campus and Careers” locale that holds Pennsylvania State University. It went for Bush by a small margin in 2004. If Obama wins there, it could be a sign of the youth vote helping him in those college counties. http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
Florida: Polls close at 8 p.m., and most surveys show the race here is very tight. The big news in Florida over the past few years has been the housing crunch, particularly in the state’s many “Boom Town” counties (growing and diversifying locales). These counties include Democratic strongholds like Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade, where it will be important to see Obama’s margin, but they may report late. Also worth watching may be Hillsborough and Sarasota – “Boom Town” counties on the Gulf Coast that Bush won narrowly in 2004 but could flip to Obama. http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
North Carolina: The last polls in this state close at 8:30 p.m. (with many closing earlier at 7:30 p.m.). Two community types will be key here. In 2004, the vote was close in the “Monied ’Burb” counties – Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, and Mecklenburg. And there are a host of “Minority Central” counties with large African-American populations – such as Rowan, Stanly, Davidson, and Cumberland. For Obama, the point in those counties would not be to win them, but to narrow the Republican margin from 2004. http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/
Check in later Tuesday for updates on what we are seeing and hearing.
And if you’re really looking for predictions, stop by the site of Bruce Nash at “The Crunch.” He has predicted not only the outcome of the race, but also when networks will make their calls.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am PST
lightnin,
Your post is a pity. Bigotry is the opposite of liberty and of the Gospel.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am PST
Every Republican I know is voting for Obama and the Democrats because the Republican party has not kept their promises to their own and have not done anything for them. Ask yourself the tough questions-Have they carried out anything you’ve wanted/needed of them? Do they turn their back on you when you ask a question? Are they spending too much, not giving to the needy, and creating more intrusive government? You cannot deny Obama is a good man.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pm PST
I’m a republican who’s not voting for Obama…..there now you know one who’s not.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:07 pm PST
Let’s remember, we are all Americans and we are all in this together.. Who ever wins, we have to accept and deal peacefully and rationally with the new administration. The world is watching….Let’s show the world that we can behave like grown ups; if we do, they will be impressed by our democracy. We don’t need the President to improve our image; we can do ourselves..
November 4th, 2008 at 12:10 pm PST
Jody,
Why? Because your beliefs differ from his? or do you know him personally? Why the personal attack?
November 4th, 2008 at 12:22 pm PST
Veteran4McCain,
Being a vet doesn’t qualify you to be President. Yes, McCain served this country, and yes, I am grateful to him (and you) for that sacrifice, but that does not necessarily mean he’d be a good President.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:38 pm PST
…and yet is it wise to elect a president who refuses to salute the American Flag and who admittedly has attended and participated in US flag burning “parties” and who thinks it’s better to save trees and grass, but it’s AOK throw babies in dumpsters? Would that a “good” president make?
November 4th, 2008 at 12:41 pm PST
LOL at all..
November 4th, 2008 at 12:45 pm PST
Please I want the organizers of this election to be careful in counting the votes and not to accept bribe because if at all bribe is accepted, is will disorganise the entire America and it citizen. Give the accurate counting to the votes and accurate results to the people for the good and betterment of the young ones. My advice to all the U.S citizens is to vote for Obama for he has a plan for Americans, and his mission will move America.
A word is enough for the wise.
Regards.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:12 pm PST
Yeh, **** move us all right - right down the toilet. DFL supermajority here we come. Good bye freedom, good bye paycheck, goodbye to everything our founding fathers worked so hard for, and a spit in the face of all that our vets fought and died for. “We’re all in it together” - yeh right, try telling that to the european jews in 1939. If you in any way, shape, or form call yourself a Christian, you are an absolute fool to vote nearly anything DFL. They HATE you and anything you claim to believe in. Sure the GOP hasn’t done a very good job leading this country recently, but these are exceedingly difficult times we are dealing with. Just because your pastor doesn’t do what you want is no reason to stop going to church, or switching to worshiping the devil! Come on people, use the brain God gave you. DO you really want to end up like socialistic, godless Europe? I love this country despite its flaws. Please don’t throw away what ever good is left in it by handing it to the DFL!!! Whether we like or will admit it or not, we all will account for our actions and decisions before the Almightly some day. What will He say of you?
November 4th, 2008 at 2:16 pm PST
I’ve never commented before, but I’ve read others comments. What really saddens me is that if you are a Democrat voting for Obama then you must be A) suffering from White guilt B) a person who hates America and is voting for Socialism or even worse Communism/Marxism or C) A black person with no intelligence and is only voting for Obama because he is black. Now there have been some who accuse Republicans of being racist for not voting for Obama and that’s just being ignorant. If you truly disagree with Obama on issues then I applaud you for voting against him for that reason. But if you are voting against him because of some empty rhetoric such as “throwing babies in dumpsters”, “he hates America”, “it’ll mean death to Israel”, or “He’s a socialist/communist/marxist”. Then you are really just as ignorant as those who claim you are racist. First, this country is not a truly capitalistic country. There is some socialism in almost every area of our lives. If this were a truly capitalistic society, then there would be no regulations on the marketing of drugs, the production of food, or in our graduated tax system that funds our police force, schools, garbage and sewers, etc… Could you imagine if in the free market companies were allowed to make wild claims about this drug or that drug without any conclusive test analysis? Could you imagine in a free market if the government eliminated subsidies on certain farm products and these farms could grow whatever they felt like and if they lost money this year so what, maybe next year? Could you imagine if people said hey even though I made 100k more than this person over there, I’m only going to pay the same percentage of taxes because I don’t need the extra cop patrolling my neighborhood. People need to wake up and stop allowing these 30 second sound bites they hear on some radio or news program become the new rallying cry for why they are voting for or against a particular person. Last time I checked we still have 3 branches of government, we still hold elections every 2 years for the majority of our elected officials in the country. So for someone to suggest that a vote for Obama is a vote for Communism is laughable on its face and it’s disheartening that the person making the statement truly believes that our way of life in this country is coming to an end.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:38 pm PST
Re Patrick: Since when is a society non-capitalsitic simply because it is regulated? And while it may be hyperbole to call Obama a socialist or communist, his comments about “spreading the wealth,” “building the economy from the bottom up,” and “taxing to achieve fairness” certainly reflects socialist dogma and an ignorance about how our economy is intended to work.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:43 pm PST
Wake up and look at our history, look at how far we’ve come down the path of communism already. We and our freedoms - our way of life are comming to an end slowly, just like the frog in the pot of water. People like Obama and the people who pull his strings are very slowly turning up the heat! Do we have as much freedom today as your parents did? Your grandparents? Answer honestly, is there really as much opportunity today to advance in our careers, to have a steady, reliable, long term job, or even to serve the Lord without reprisial or censure as there was say 50yrs ago. You can’t even disipline your children without fear that “someone from the government” will here and take them away from you. Be honest. The “water” has gotten quite hot, hasn’t it? Keep up that way of thinking, that everything is OK, you’ll allow that water to boil soon enough. Will you finally understand when you’re sitting in a concentration camp?
November 4th, 2008 at 3:56 pm PST
[…] Christian Science Monitor: Your guide to following election results […]
November 4th, 2008 at 4:00 pm PST
I’m a US citizen living in Canada. Some of these comments are so heartbreakingly ignorant, they make me weep for my country.
Here’s the thing : it really doesn’t matter who is elected, Daddy, whether he’s named John or Obama, can’t rescue us any more. What matters is what WE do, day to day. It’s about time we all grew up and started being responsible for our actions, individually and globally.
Treat your neighbour with interest, patience, kindness and generosity. Understand what we have in common…a bone-deep need for decent food and shelter, clean air and water, the safety and well-being of our children. Know these simple basics are shared by every human being on the planet, and build on that.
Several years ago my husband was diagnosed with a fairly aggressive form of skin cancer. Some weeks later he’d had surgery and was home healing. The cost to our family? ZERO dollars. The cost to the country as a whole? Maybe a few cents per person. Without that contribution from millions of people, my children would have lost their father, our family would have been broken by poverty, the business he built would have vanished, and his staff and all of their families would be unemployed.
To those who rant about other about “socialistic, godless Europe,” etc. .. Do something to shake those cobwebs out of that brain. Get out of your house and away from the TV set. Read a book. Take a walk. Save your money and visit another country. Ask who benefits from the divisiveness of this debate. It is not you and it is not me.
November 4th, 2008 at 4:41 pm PST
Re Linda: “Be still, and know that YOU are God” - is that what you are trying to say? God has granted us authority. All authority belongs to God, but He has put human beings on the earth as caretakers. What is our task? According to Jesus in Matthew 28:18-20, we are to go out and make disciples of all nations, teaching them to obey God in every area of life. This includes politics. We must disciple people to make godly decisions about government, and promote the efforts of those who are already doing so. Most of the DFL seems to be going in the opposite direction. We need to stand against evil. St. Augustine said those who are citizens of God’s kingdom are best equipped to be citizens of the kingdom of man. The alternative is unthinkable. In the 20th Century, atheistic and secular humanistic leaders gained control of nations all across Europe, Asia and Africa. What was the result? According to historian R. J. Rummel, almost 170 million men, women and children have been brutally murdered by these governments, all in the name of human progress. These facts led historian John Hallowell to note,
“Only through a return to faith in God, as God revealed Himself to man in Jesus Christ, can modern man and his society find redemption from the tyranny of evil.” Obama and many of his cronies want to take us in the direction of these “godless”, secular nations. Is their past and present brutality to be our legacy as well? I’ll keep my as you say “cobwebs” if you don’t mind.
November 4th, 2008 at 4:54 pm PST
For those of you concerned about socialism, I assume it must be because Obama’s tax plan has been labeled as a redistribution of wealth. If you were to actually do some research on the topic, instead of just going with what Rush and the dittoheads tell you, you would find the following to be true: Obama’s plan would return tax rates to what they were prior to the Bush administration, when no one could dispute the economy, the banking industry, and the job market were in far better shape. At those levels, the highest tax bracket would increase a minute 1.9%, from 35% to the 36.9% it was when Clinton left office. And before you start crying about Joe the Plumber, realize that this change would only affect 2% of the country who file taxes as a “small business.” I would love to be a part of the 2% that can make a difference in the lives of 95% of Americans…wouldn’t you?
November 4th, 2008 at 5:18 pm PST
The irony of Joe the unliscensed plumber is that he will benefit from Obama’s tax cuts as an unliscensed plumber he is never likely to earn more than 250k p.a. But then again maybe he was thinking of his new job as a Republican cheerleader. How much is the GOP paying him?
November 4th, 2008 at 5:21 pm PST
I find it odd that Christians hate Christians for voting for a different party. To one Christian it’s most important to support the rights of the unborn child,which I think they should,even if nothing has been done by any party about it. Others vote for a party that wants to feed the hungry, give health care to the sick and take care of the earth God gave us. Both of these parties hold some Christian ideals. You have to ask yourself which one will make more positive change
November 4th, 2008 at 6:38 pm PST
The first sign of the Civilian National Security Force is here.
Did they arrest the Black Panther with a “night stick” blocking a poll location door in PA?
Allegedly he was intimidating voters saying “A Black Man is Going To Win This Election”!
November 4th, 2008 at 6:40 pm PST
The first sign of the Civilian National Security Force is here.
Did they arrest the Black Panther with a “night stick” blocking a poll location door in PA?
Allegedly he was intimidating voters saying “A Black Man is Going To Win This Election”!
November 4th, 2008 at 6:54 pm PST
Rusty
How about Christians supporting a woman’s right to choose? Ironic how alleged Christians are obsessed with gay marriages and abortion issues whilst turning a blind eye to abuse by the clergy, poverty and injustice across the globe and in their own midst. Not the sort of Christianity Jesus had in mind.
Try asking yourself which way Jesus would vote. I doubt he’d be a big fan of the gun toting, lipstick wearing environmental vandal from Alaska.
And I doubt he would be affeted by the Bradley effect.