Obama, the Bradley effect, and Cliff Huxtable
Dante Chinni
Posted: 10.28.2008 / 9:08 AM PDT
The presidential polls may look good for Sen. Barack Obama, but many of his supporters look at the numbers and feel queasy. Are the numbers for real, or is there a quiet racism lurking behind them that’s not being picked up?
They worry about the “Bradley effect,” named for Tom Bradley, the former African-American mayor of Los Angeles who in 1982 lost his race for California governor even though polls showed him far ahead. Some believe the reason the real numbers didn’t match the polls was because voters were afraid to admit racist attitudes to pollsters.
Some pollsters question whether the “Bradley effect” could have a serious impact in 2008. Many point to more recent contests, such as that of Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee in 2006. Although he lost his bid for the Senate, it was by the margin that the prevote polls suggested.
Beyond the Bradley effect, there may be another trend among some white voters. But this one, which has emerged in looking at racial attitudes in Patchwork Nation, would aid Senator Obama come next Tuesday. Call it the “Huxtable factor,” as in Heathcliff Huxtable, the lovable über-dad of “The Cosby Show.”
Earlier this year, we measured attitudes toward race in our 11 Patchwork Nation groups, using questions from the University of Michigan’s 2004 American National Election Study.
We found that in communities with few African-Americans, where attitudes toward blacks may be formed mostly by media and cultural stereotypes, whites tended to be less focused on race as a topic and less concerned with racial-preference issues.
Meanwhile, in places where blacks and whites lived in close proximity – and where they were often competing for things like jobs, housing, and political office – racial tensions ran higher.
This has largely been borne out in Patchwork Nation’s reporting over the past several months. In two or three locales, we have heard comments from our correspondents that indicate, directly or indirectly, that race will be an issue next Tuesday.
Contacts in Baton Rouge, La. (our “Minority Central” community, with a large African-American population), and in Hopkinsville, Ky. (our “Military Bastion,” which is 21 percent African-American), suggest that the idea of having an African-American president may be weighing heavily on people’s minds. Correspondents have told us they’ve heard talk about how Obama may be more concerned with helping blacks than helping everyone should he become president.
But in places like Lincoln City, Ore. (our semirural “Service Worker Center”), and Sioux Center, Iowa (our socially conservative, agricultural “Tractor Country” community), the issue has hardly come up at all. Both places are more than 92 percent white.
That does not mean that the good people of Sioux Center are leaning Obama: The area does seem to hold any “reverse Bradley effect.” The town went heavily for President Bush four years ago and will certainly go heavily for Sen. John McCain, although the margin may not be as great.
In more politically split Lincoln City, however, it looks as if Obama may do well.
“My manager’s from North Carolina, and he says the attitudes toward race are [as different as] night and day here,” says Kip Ward, owner of Lincoln City’s Historic Anchor Inn. “The most racist comment you might hear around here is, ‘I’m just not comfortable with Obama,’ and that’s as far as it goes. You don’t hear that too often, and it’s all subtext.”
This may have more than a little to do with Obama’s personal story and his background. Put one way, he was a successful Ivy League-educated lawyer who married another Ivy League-educated lawyer. It is a background that sounds more like Cliff Huxtable of the 1980s sitcom “The Cosby Show,” than it does Jesse Jackson.
Dr. Huxtable and his family were successful, charming, and upper-middle-class. You didn’t have to love multiculturalism to appreciate them. They were made for Middle America and, in some places at least, so, it seems, is Obama – particularly combined with his message of “ending divisiveness.”
In recent weeks and months, the McCain campaign has tried to paint a different image of the Illinois senator – as having ties to radicalism and William Ayers, a founder of the violent Weather Underground group in the 1960s. But that approach hasn’t had much traction. What seemed to get better traction, for a while anyway, was the McCain campaign’s talk about Obama as an elitist – remember the “clinging” comments about guns and religion.
In other words, some of the most powerful criticism of Obama in the campaign so far has not involved race, but rather the more traditional “overly intellectual” critique of Democrats.
None of this is to say racism is gone from America. Even Monday, reports came out of a plan by neo-Nazi skinheads to assassinate Obama. And only Election Day will reveal whether the idea of the Bradley effect lives on.
But in Obama’s case, at least, there appear to be parts of the country where his race in not an issue at all with white voters.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:15 am PDT
I’ve noticed that the Christian Science Monitor hasn’t posted a story about the assassination attempt on Sen. Obama. I know this is a conservative site. But I have noticed that you try to avoid the issue of race. I bet my last dollar that you won’t do a comprehensive series on race that is really in depth and not superficial. I bet you won’t do it.
[Admin: Readers don't think this comment adds to the discussion.]
October 28th, 2008 at 11:04 am PDT
This article objective is not to inform or to educate. We all know about the Bradley effect and we also know how different the circumstances were. Your only objetive here is for you to make people comfortable to vote against Obama by giving them away out from their actions and at the same time for you to express your racism without feeling guilty for it …good job. Maybe you can post this article for the next seven days. Keep it alive and maybe your guy will win and we will relive the last eight years or Palin take over in 2 and she will execute all the America haters in Washington. Yes, destroy a brilliant mind just because is covered with a suntanned skin.
October 28th, 2008 at 12:19 pm PDT
It disturbs me that you think that racism is one-sided by mentioning the skinheads. Most African-Americans are voting for Obama because he is black, period. Too bad Americans can not get beyond the race/sexism issue. The treatment of Ms. Clinton and Ms. Palin during this campaign is truly disgraceful. I wish I could find a candidate to vote for who is not racist or sexist. Actually, I wish I could find another country. America is declining regardless of who is elected. Americans have made it this way.
October 28th, 2008 at 2:05 pm PDT
Y’all might want to take a look at Nate Silver of 538.com take on the Bradley effect.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/bradley-effect-or-elephant-effect.html
Regards,
DO’S
October 28th, 2008 at 2:19 pm PDT
Let’s hope if Obama is elected, “race” in politics will not be an issue in future elections just as Catholicism is no longer an issue after Kennedy. However, in the next 6 days, those of us who support Obama will worry and if anything it will motivate us to vote. We can’t take anything for granted.
October 28th, 2008 at 3:25 pm PDT
How many of the NEW voters will actually vote again ever? Most have never voted before or in a previous local election. Obama fanatics only!
October 28th, 2008 at 4:18 pm PDT
The Bradley effect isn’t. Check out Miller’s investigation of it at http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes He says Bradley lost because of a lot of bad news concerning his mayoral administration surfaced right before the governorship election that he was suppose to win. Talk of the Bradley effect provides a story to counter the perception that McCain actually won the election if he does and the poles prior to the election and exit poll raw data makes that hard to believe.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:25 pm PDT
Hey jacksmith,
To borrow a phrase from Terminator 3, ‘the Democrats ARE the virus!’ It was the liberals that created the financial mess we are now in - giving away free houses.
Fannie and Freddie have been controlled by the Democrats. The Democrats have been in control of Congress for the past 2 years. The economy was wrecked by Democrats. Google it…I have seen congressional videos of Republicans requesting for more oversight of loans backed up by Fannie and Freddie. The videos then show Democrats rebuking the Republicans saying that everything is fine with Fannie and Freddie, even suggesting that they were being racist.
Our economy has been severely damaged by the Democrat party. That, coupled with the Democrats blocking using more of our own oil for the past 40 years, has driven up gas costs for all Americans. The poor have been hit the hardest, yet Democrats continue to do everything they can to keep prices high.
Electing the Obamanation would be pouring gasoline on a fire. He promotes the idea that he is the second coming of Jesus. But he will be the second coming of Jimmy Carter, except much worse. He will have the level of corruption of Bill Clinton.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:31 pm PDT
Good for them then Julie.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:46 pm PDT
America’s diversity is more a blessing than a curse. The “typical” tribalistic tendencies that characterise most nations of the world are not at all evident in this wonderful experiment called America. Raw prejudice which is more profound in impact and outcome than mundane racism is what we should all be worried about. I believe sincerely that America has evolved considerably more than most who are alive expected to see in their live time! So whether Obama wins or not America would still have credit for inclusivenes and tolerance. But it will be historically huge for the USA to show the world through Obama Election that this nation does not only preach what it believes in but lives by what it continues to pursue the world over-liberty and freedom for all mankind irrespective of origin, religion or planet!
October 28th, 2008 at 5:09 pm PDT
“Tell the Truth” if you seriously think the global credit crisis was caused by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or that it only started 2 years ago (and the Democrats don’t have a supermajority in either the House or the Senate that would enable them to block/override stupid Republican bills), or that using more (of anybody’s) oil would help, then I shudder to think of the state of your own personal finances.
But you sound like you’ve swallowed the Republican Kool-Aid, so I guess you’re OK with the fact that your retirement just went up in smoke.
Vote Obama!
October 28th, 2008 at 6:03 pm PDT
These comments point to where the trouble with Americans (humans?) really lies. People see what they want to see. It seems the more vehement the comment, the less it has to do with addressing this article, reality, or both.
The first comment takes the monitor to task for not publishing an article about the “assassination attempt” on Obama. It was a long way from an attempt (thank the Maker), and there was a link to BBC coverage of the incident right in this article. It’s not like it was being ignored. Jackson goes on to say that this article about race avoids the issue of race. I won’t even touch that one.
To Sammy who is disturbed that you only mention one side of racism. That side of racism is what this article is about. The Bradley effect, specifically.
Then, quite a bit farther in the reality distortion field that is more full of self serving political bile than any attempt and reaching the truth we have:
The Republican Kool-Aid…please, try and be a little more cliche.
Democrats are giving away free houses (Heck, sign me up!) Is this like Palin’s oil check for all Alaskans?
Or
Palin will execute all the America haters in Washington? I mean, you may not like her, but she isn’t Hitler.
Democrats have done everything they can to keep oil prices high. Yeah, that’s their sole purpose in life. Defending our environment, our future has NOTHING to do with it. They just want everybody, themselves included, to pay more at the pump.
Do you listen to yourselves? Please,
do.
I am not saying that there should be no debate. There should be, and it should be heated. But stick to facts not easy button emotional smears.
Thank you to those of you who have posted relevant links and offered real discourse. We need more of it. When did Americans start tearing our neighbors’ throats out for daring to have a different opinion?
Land of the FREE. That includes freedom of thought and speech.
Peace. May the best candidate win.
October 28th, 2008 at 6:12 pm PDT
Socialism in not just a failed experiment worldwide–it is coming to a nation near you–an Obamination. Jacksmith, say goodbye to your 401K, the democrats will handle that for you and do as good of a job as they have with everything else they touch. Barack needs power–you’ll be giving it to him. All of it. No checks–No balances. Let’s redistribute your wealth a little to the able bodied slacker who will be getting cash and free health care off of your hard work. Obama pulls the race card when it is convenient for him and his campaign to continue to divide this country and tell it what it needs and how much it needs to whom. I want a choice about whether I want to support abortion. I do not want to be told it is OK. I do not want my elementary school daughters learning that abortion is a form of birth control. I do not want the next building to blow up because Oblablahblah will gut the military and re-distribute the wealth to his party.
Racism will be the call if Obama loses–hopefully the voters will not vote for him because he is a raging liberal with socialistic tendencies to take from those who have worked hard to achieve wealth and give it those who have not.
October 28th, 2008 at 6:23 pm PDT
Thank you, Alan Bates.
I neglected to mention “Obamination” in the list of ridiculous hate speech. We are all in your debt.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:16 pm PDT
I think there may be another effect in the making. In states like NH where many people feel the need to conform socially to a conservative agenda, there will be many that secretly vote for Obama yet claim that they voted for McCain. In fact, my belief is that this could well be a higher percentage than the “Bradley Effect.” In states like NH, this could even impact exit polls. A lot of people are fed up with the Bush years and see McCain and just a continuation. On top of that, people here that I have spoken with see Palin as a poor choice, if not a disaster for the GOP.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:48 pm PDT
Brian,
Abomination is something vile and detestable. I find the mainstream media manipulation just so, I find his lies and half-truths just so. I find his ability to use the race issue when it suits him, just so. Here is just one one observation of democratic policies on abortion: The Black community has not benefited either socially or economically from an atrocity that is enthusiastically promoted by those who make millions of dollars from our dead babies; and by those who seek to entice the Black community to self-genocide through abortion. Therefore, the disproportionate number of abortions by Black Americans, as compared to our percentage of the general population, is more than a social phenomenon. It is destructive and genocidal. It must be halted in order to avoid further negative impact in our community. http://www.abortionfacts.com/learn/abortion.asp
I find that abominable. If Obama wants to align himself, effectively against his own race, call it what YOU will.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:49 am PDT
Information for those that think: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53802.html Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis
I’ve always wondered why Christians turn to government. Jesus didn’t. Don’t you have any faith? Lead the pregnant to Jesus, for Christ sake! Stop trying to beat them with the law. You’re just showing your brutality as you try to deny them one option, while not offering support for their future.
And try explaining to Jesus that socialism has failed. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is a paraphrase of a passage in the bible. You denigrate Christianity when you denigrate socialism.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:31 am PDT
Back on the financial issue - from the daily kos:
Matt Taibbi: Oh, come on. Tell me you’re not ashamed to put this gigantic international financial Krakatoa at the feet of a bunch of poor black people who missed their mortgage payments. The CDS market, this market for credit default swaps that was created in 2000 by Phil Gramm’s Commodities Future Modernization Act, this is now a $62 trillion market, up from $900 billion in 2000. That’s like five times the size of the holdings in the NYSE. And it’s all speculation by Wall Street traders. It’s a classic bubble/Ponzi scheme. The effort of people like you to pin this whole thing on minorities, when in fact this whole thing has been caused by greedy traders dealing in unregulated markets, is despicable […]
Byron York: When you refer to “Phil Gramm’s Commodities Future Modernization Act,” are you referring to S.3283, co-sponsored by Gramm, along with Senators Tom Harkin and Tim Johnson?
Matt Taibbi: In point of fact I’m talking about the 262-page amendment Gramm tacked on to that bill that deregulated the trade of credit default swaps.
Phil Gramm was McCain’s campaigns financial advisor until he bitched, in regards to the financial implosion, something along the line of “Americans are just a bunch of whiners.”
October 29th, 2008 at 2:17 am PDT
Alan Bates,
Thank you for explaining Obamination. Believe it or not, I understood the play on words when I labelled it hate speech. Interestingly, my on-board computer dictionary defines the word as something “that causes hatred or disgust.” I am quite sure that Barack Obama is not the cause of your hatred and bile, just your latest target.
Interestingly, when you began the tirade on the atrocity and genocide preying on the black community–about the fiends making millions off of our dead babies–I thought you were talking about the disproportionate number of African-American soldiers in Iraq, not the abortion question.
I am saddened that your responses continue to illustrate my concerns about the self serving emotional blindness that plagues our people.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:16 am PDT
Regarding our soldiers, “Poll Suggests U.S. Troops Support McCain 3-1″
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/21/poll-troops-support-mccain/
Isn’t it interesting that those who volunteered to enlist in our military support the candidate that the Obamanation campaign suggests wants to keep them in harm’s way and let them die in a useless war? If the liberal anti-American press were accurate then our soldiers would be fleeing the military and voting for Barak Hussein Obama. Hmmm?
October 29th, 2008 at 8:41 am PDT
Jerry:
“And try explaining to Jesus that socialism has failed. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is a paraphrase of a passage in the bible. You denigrate Christianity when you denigrate socialism.”
As with any principle out of the Bible, it becomes corrupted by the human influence. Politicians, Kings, Ayatollahs, have all corrupted this idea with greed, cronyism and abuses of power to take from the wealthy and keep it. The trickle down does not create more even playing field, it creates more widespread poverty. I do not denigrate Christianity-simply expose the flaws of a systems human beings are not capable of administering in our present condition.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:15 am PDT
October 29th, 2008 at 10:15 am PDT
Brian,
Personal attacks on me( however seemingly clever you think they are) illustrates the same technique used to deflect the issues at hand, used by those afraid to discuss the real issues and agenda of_______.(you fill in the blank), media, politicians, corporations, all work.
“Self serving emotinal blindness”–what is that ****? Maybe you could come down from your lofty perch and enlighten us?
Jerry,
“And try explaining to Jesus that socialism has failed. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is a paraphrase of a passage in the bible. You denigrate Christianity when you denigrate socialism.”
Seriously? Socialism has not failed? Uh, Russia, China,Cuba to name a few–shining examples of everyone enjoying their country’s plummeting GNP. Biblical principles are perfect–human influence corrupts them and it is proven by failed Kings, Ayatollahs, and despots that socialism can not be forced on a population with good results. Early Christians made it work because they volunteered. Tax code Change to bring about redistribution of wealth in a fashion deemed appropriate by the government is another example of the Obamination.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:21 pm PDT
October 29th, 2008 at 1:24 pm PDT
October 29th, 2008 at 1:33 pm PDT
In response to Sammy: Yes, the African-American vote may be overwhelmingly for Obama this year, but, as history shows us, many of those African-Americans have voted for white candidates in the past. I would define a racist voter as one who would not vote for someone of a different race, no matter what.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:14 pm PDT
I have given this about all I want to, but here goes one last attempt.
I did not begin responding to any individual comment, but to many posted here (and elsewhere). I have heard Palin called a Nazi, Obama called a terrorist, and we all know the list goes on. I am tired of everyone intentionally pushing these emotional (Obaminational) buttons to avoid the issues at hand.
To Mr. Bates directly,
I do not feel I have attacked you, and am sorry if you do. Taking issue with your use of hate speech like “Obamination” is NOT a personal attack. I didn’t realize I was on any kind of perch, lofty or otherwise. Quite the opposite, I feel like I am one of the few who have both feet on the ground and are trying to make some progress instead of slinging some mud.
“What is this ****?” you ask? I really don’t see how you could not understand “self-serving emotional blindness.”
Self-serving: serving one’s own interests often in disregard of the truth or the interests of others
emotional: markedly aroused or agitated in feeling or sensibilities
blindness: unable or unwilling to discern or judge
(Defintions from www.merriamwebster.com)
You accuse me of trying to avoid the issues with my “attacks” on you. I don’t know what issue you think I am avoiding. I think that the abortion rate among the poor of any race is alarmingly high, and I advocate many methods of trying to decrease it. I wasn’t addressing that. I was just pointing out that you SEEM to choose to worry about the “genocide” of blacks when it coincides with your views (abortion), but not when it conflicts with your views (about the war in Iraq). That was the self-serving part.
For better or for worse, there has been a steep decline in both black and latino enlistments since the beginning of the war in Iraq (a fact that Tell the Truth might find interesting).
About the failing of socialism, I would just point out that the U.S.S.R., Cuba, and China were also totalitarian states. Many countries in the European Union are quite socialist, but they are also republics. These countries are still very much alive. Like all of us, they are being hit hard by the recent economic crisis. So let’s see if we keep slinging insults instead of finding fault, correcting it, and working together to solve our problems.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:15 pm PDT
OK, let’s try it in parts. Part One
I have given this about all I want to, but here goes one last attempt.
I did not begin responding to any individual comment, but to many posted here (and elsewhere). I have heard Palin called a Nazi, Obama called a terrorist, and we all know the list goes on. I am tired of everyone intentionally pushing these emotional (Obaminational) buttons to avoid the issues at hand.
To Mr. Bates directly,
I do not feel I have attacked you, and am sorry if you do. Taking issue with your use of hate speech like “Obamination” is NOT a personal attack. I didn’t realize I was on any kind of perch, lofty or otherwise. Quite the opposite, I feel like I am one of the few who have both feet on the ground and are trying to make some progress instead of slinging some mud.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:16 pm PDT
Part Two (sorry, it kept giving me errors)
“What is this ****?” you ask? I really don’t see how you could not understand “self-serving emotional blindness.”
Self-serving: serving one’s own interests often in disregard of the truth or the interests of others
emotional: markedly aroused or agitated in feeling or sensibilities
blindness: unable or unwilling to discern or judge
(Defintions from www.merriamwebster.com)
You accuse me of trying to avoid the issues with my “attacks” on you. I don’t know what issue you think I am avoiding. I think that the abortion rate among the poor of any race is alarmingly high, and I advocate many methods of trying to decrease it. I wasn’t addressing that. I was just pointing out that you SEEM to choose to worry about the “genocide” of blacks when it coincides with your views (abortion), but not when it conflicts with your views (about the war in Iraq). That was the self-serving part.
For better or for worse, there has been a steep decline in both black and latino enlistments since the beginning of the war in Iraq (a fact that Tell the Truth might find interesting).
About the failing of socialism, I would just point out that the U.S.S.R., Cuba, and China were also totalitarian states. Many countries in the European Union are quite socialist, but they are also republics. These countries are still very much alive. Like all of us, they are being hit hard by the recent economic crisis. So let’s see if we keep slinging insults instead of finding fault, correcting it, and working together to solve our problems.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm PST
I agree that racism has a large effect on this campaign, but everyone keeps omitting the fact that Barack Obama and all his supportors are playing the race card heavier than John McCain ever could. It is a case where the minority has the advantage by playing on peoples sense of “lets do the right thing” and vote for “Black” president and dont think that Obama is not fully aware and taking advantage of this fact. Now what we have instead of just a Racist vote, which would have people voting for McCain, we have the Anti-Racist vote, which has people voting for Obama. Twisted world it is, I just wish people could NOT-look at the candidates and vote for the policies and ablilities that they bring to the table, and then if we have a historical first “Black” president, then more power to him and if we get another “White” president, then more power to him. Lets hope either way that they just get over it, we get rid of “W” and move onto something…anything better than him.
November 17th, 2008 at 6:30 pm PST
[…] Vote Obama, the Bradley effect, and Cliff Huxtable […]
April 27th, 2009 at 6:38 am PDT
I agree with you 100% - things happen for a reason. I found this by accident and noticed that we have some things in common. Thats what I love about the Internet, every blog is like a box of chocolates
Thanks - Great blog.