Obama and the end of the Reagan Democrats?
Dante Chinni
Posted: 10.20.2008 / 7:19 AM PDT
Warren, Mich. – Macomb County, part of suburban Detroit, is known as the birthplace of the term “Reagan Democrats” – those white, working-class voters who went Republican starting in the 1980s.
Although Al Gore, a Democrat, carried the county’s vote in 2000, Reagan Democrats helped President Bush prevail there four years later.
But this election season, polling in the county indicates a significant voter shift favoring the Democrats and Sen. Barack Obama. If the shift is any indicator, it could even mean that this coveted animal in American politics, the Reagan Democrat, is potentially headed for the endangered species list.
Among Patchwork Nation’s types of communities, Macomb County is one of the “Monied ’Burbs” – wealthy, largely suburban locales that are key in most elections. Taken together, “Monied ’Burbs” are the most populous county type in Patchwork Nation, with more than 80 million people total. They tend to split their votes between Democrats and Republicans – and Reagan Democrats have fit right in.
In crucial Macomb County, Senator Obama leads by about seven percentage points, according to Bernie Porn, president of the Michigan polling firm EPIC-MRA. Such a sizable lead was recorded even before Sen. John McCain’s sudden campaign exodus from Michigan two-plus weeks ago.
Overall, Republicans have not won Michigan since 1988, but Mr. Bush came close in 2004 by flipping Macomb to his column and racking up points in all the “Monied ’Burb” counties around Detroit. In 2000, Bush won these seven “Monied ’Burbs” by about 5,000 votes. In 2004, he won by about 49,000.
With the slumping economy, such a tilt to the GOP seems unlikely in 2008, according to poll numbers.
Macomb has always been the more blue-collar of Detroit’s two counties to the north, and traveling through its communities, away from Detroit, is like following the money. Warren, which is next to Detroit, is less wealthy than the next town out, Sterling Heights. Sterling Heights is less wealthy than the next community out, Shelby Township.
In much of suburban Detroit, political experts say, the big concerns since 1980 have been primarily about two things: taxes and the desire to keep government small. But conversations with people in Warren and a drive around the city show why those sentiments may be waning.
“For lease” signs and boarded-up storefronts mark the commercial properties on almost every other street in southern Warren, near the line with Detroit border. As one drives farther away from Detroit, the situation hardly improves: On many corners, large stores are vacant, dominating strip malls like white elephants. They’re casualties of a mass grocery-store chain closing more than a year ago.
On side streets, for-sale homes sit and sit, and the prices drop and drop. Jason MacKay, a local middle-school teacher, tells of how his childhood home is roughly going for the same price it sold for in 1970.
With these conditions, this is not likely to be an area that is overly concerned with balancing the federal budget or keeping government small – two of Senator McCain’s biggest points. Increasingly, people here are wondering if they’re going to need the government’s help sometime soon. They are looking for a candidate who can address their economic hardship, and many are finding Obama.
“When it comes to the Reagan Democrats, that was 28 years ago,” says Mr. Porn of EPIC-MRA. “The thing everyone has to remember is the number who actually voted for Reagan is declining. Many have died….”
In fact, if the GOP had entertained hopes of capturing the Great Lakes State, it hinged on winning those Reagan Democrats in the Detroit suburbs. With that appearing unlikely, McCain’s departure from the state may make sense.
Michigan is, of course, a special case. The state, which is heavily dependent on the auto industry, has taken a hard hit. The September unemployment rate sits near 9 percent.
Still, there are signs that the changes within the “Reagan Democrats” group reach beyond Michigan. Polling done for a statehouse district in and around Philadelphia – in a heavily white ethnic area that’s a “Monied ’Burb” – also shows a big Obama lead, according to one Patchwork Nation correspondent there.
Such shifts among Reagan Democrats could end up having a big impact on Election Day, possibly throwing many of those key suburban counties into the Obama column.
Is it all enough to signify the end of the Reagan Democrats? That may be premature, at least until Nov. 4. But it at least looks like we’re seeing the end of the Reagan Democrats as we knew them.
October 20th, 2008 at 10:15 am PDT
Interesting background on the Reagan Democrats, I have friends who call themselves Reagan Democrats and they are anything but blue-collar workers. After the 04 election I suggested that they begin referring to themselves as the Zell Miller Democrats, DINOs. I agree that many of the so called Reagan Dems will vote for Obama, they like being called Reagan Democrats though and my guess is they will continue to refer to themselves as such. From my perspective this election there will be a new political catch phrase, Obama Republicans. I know quite a few Republicans who for the first time in their lives will be crossing party lines and voting Democratic for Obama. From the city that brought out 100,000 for the Obama stop on Saturday. Peace
October 20th, 2008 at 10:39 am PDT
I’m not particularly thrilled with McCain, but just the potential for the Supreme Court to go in the direction of what Obama and Nancy Pelosi want should scare every thinking, breathing American. I bear no ill will towards all that think this way with a sincere heart, but we need to help guide their logic. Prayer works
October 20th, 2008 at 10:49 am PDT
“prayer” will DEFINITELY lead AWAY from the policies of wealth transfer from those who can least afford it (the working stiff, unemployed, under-employed and overworked, even middle class)to the rich fat cats, who really screwed up the world (not just US) in the name of free markets, when all they cared for was naked, unbridled GREED! And the republican administration the last decade aided and abbeted this, while also sacrificing the party ideals. Any real republican will vote democrat this time around!! time to send a message and Collin Powell finally votes his conscience.
October 20th, 2008 at 11:07 am PDT
You say “Any real republican will vote democrat this time around” (as an objection to the “sacrificing the party ideals”). If that’s your intent, I agree with that, but how about giving your vote to Bob Barr instead, as a showing of contempt for McCain, but not giving it to the extreme of liberalism and anti-life policies of Obama and Nancy Pelosi, that fake Catholic? And since WHEN was a PRAYER wasted ? I pray for HIS will, not mine or yours.
October 20th, 2008 at 1:17 pm PDT
America needs “Blue Dog Democrats” to stand up to their party.
As the election draws near, my worry about America’s future increases. I continue to have faith that American’s will make the right choice (as long as ACORN doesn’t steal it). The article America’s Attachment to the Idea of Change is the Perilous “Will o’ The Wisp” That’s Confounding Voter’s Perceptions sums up my concerns. It is found at:
http://zachjonesishome.wordpress.com/2008/10/19/voters-obama-will-o-the-wisp-change-confounding-voters-perceptions/
October 21st, 2008 at 7:54 am PDT
Obama’s tax policies of taxing the wealthy and corporations are not what the Metro-Detroit area needs. Forcing a larger burden financially on those two will only result in cut backs in spending for investment and downsizing staff for corporations to keep their profits in line with what their investors demand.
Anyone that really thinks that taxing Ford and GM higher will somehow bring more jobs to the area needs to get a reality check.
October 21st, 2008 at 8:40 am PDT
-Dear Vincent Sr.,
The Supreme court operates best when it is ideologically balanced. With its present alignment at seven justices named by Republicans and two by Democrats, Obama could rebalance the ideological basis of the Courts.
Obama’s work as a Senior Constitutional Law lecturer, and civil rights lawyer gives him an insight into their work; therefore enabling him to make more educated decisions on who to elect to the positions. The advice from Biden would also help, as he is Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and has an 86% lifetime score from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).
October 21st, 2008 at 8:42 am PDT
-Dear Vincent Sr.,
A Catholic serious about preserving life should reasonably find Obama’s educational and material assistance to mothers the practical, stronger alternative. Consider that the rate of abortion rose with Reagan, the two Bushes and decreased during Clinton’s administration. Obama’s approach is more effective at preventing abortions than the ‘pro-life’ approach by reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies and, thus, abortions. It also reduces the STD rates; meaning Obama’s approach reduces illness, unwanted pregnancies, abortions, poverty, and, in some cases, death.
Promoting a culture of life is necessarily interconnected with a family wage, health care, and better education of our youth. This greater appreciation for the totality of Catholic teaching is at the very heart of the Obama campaign. The church asks its faithful to find meaningful – not hypothetical – ways to promote human life. The Obama philosophy has; and will – with tangible policies that would actually reduce abortions.
Catholic thinking should give proportionate consideration to how well a candidate addressed such important matters as a just economy, a living or family wage, access to health care, stewardship of the environment, fair treatment of immigrants and, not to be overlooked, the just or unjust conduct of War. This is basic Catholic social teaching. It also just happens to be Barack Obama’s policy agenda. All these are life issues too.
Roman Catholics for Obama (http://www.romancatholicsforobama.com/ ) says on their website that Obama is a candidate that best represents Catholic social teaching and he “will look for common ground in addressing some of the most pressing needs of our time - among them alleviating poverty, protecting the environment, making peace and, we believe, creating a culture of life… After faithful thought and prayer, we have arrived at the conclusion that Senator Obama is the candidate whose views are most compatible with the Catholic outlook, and we will vote for him because of that — and because of his other outstanding qualities — despite our disagreements with him in specific areas.”
October 21st, 2008 at 11:08 am PDT
@ Stephen and Vincent Sr:
The justices most likely to retire are from the liberal wing. At best for liberals, and worst for conservatives, an Obama presidency would leave the S.C. balance as it currently is. A McCain presidency, however, even with a stronger Dem majority in the Senate, might tweak the Supreme Court more toward the conservative side. In summary, conservatives have nothing more to fear from a President Obama regarding the SC than they do from the current SC lineup (4 liberals, 4 conservatives, and a swing conservative in Kennedy), while liberals might have something more to fear from a President McCain.
October 21st, 2008 at 2:06 pm PDT
ACORN is not “stealing” anything. The fraud that was committed, was committed by ACORN employees on ACORN. Filling out voter registration cards with fake names like Mickey Mouse doesn’t do anything to “steal an election”. Fake people will not show up at the polls to vote. This whole idea that ACORN is somehow going to steal the election is ridiculous. Mickey Mouse won’t show up at the polls to vote. I could fill out 10,000,000 fake registration cards with phony names. The point is these fake people don’t exist and they won’t show up to vote. This whole thing is absolutely ridiculous. Use you brains once in awhile people!
October 21st, 2008 at 5:40 pm PDT
Since Ford and GM lose money with every car they build, they don’t have any profits to be taxed. Cindy McCain’s big profitible beer business will pay a bit more though. The Wall Street wizards who brought us “Asset Backed Paper” and “Credit Default Swaps” will pay a bit more.
I don’t believe that an idiot would have bought something called a “Credit Default Swap.” Only a banker would fall for a “product” like that.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:30 am PDT
Most of the world’s problems are caused by overpopulation. The only country doing something about this problem is China with their one child per family policy. If we would all follow China’s policy the world’s population would be cut by two thirds in 120 years and we could all have peace and prosperity. Mao Tse Tsung for president…..
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:19 am PDT
-Dear ZachJonesIsHome and Joe Gram,
ACORN is a community organisation that works on neighbourhood safety (such as neighbourhood watches), health care and other social issues. ACORN’s priorities have included: better housing and wages, more community development investment, better funding for public schools, and Hurricane Katrina relief. ACORN pursues these goals through community organisation, such as petitions, negotiations, legislation, and voter participation. ACORN registers people regardless of political affiliation – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Acorn registered 1.3 million voters this year, who are American citizens who otherwise would not be voting. This is a commendable organisation.
There has not been any “voter fraud” (like the ones in 2000 and 2004). There have been reports of “voter registration fraud,” but not voter fraud. In almost every state ACORN are required to by law turn in ALL completed applications, even the ones they know to be problematic; which accounts for this fact. Since they are legally compelled to file every form, even in it says Bugs Bunny; their quality control process flags these and sets them aside. This means that they identify the registration fraud, flag it, and prevent it from becoming voter fraud. According to the organization, “ACORN flags incomplete, problem, or suspicious cards when we turn them in.”
ACORN is registering voters, a noble thing. Yes, there are fraud chargers due to the fact that, by law, they must return all forms, even problematic ones (which they flag); but the people they register would otherwise not be voting. This is not a bad organisation. I realise some criticism is justified in an inadequate flagging process, but Obama has not engaged in fraud, and the main goal of ACORN is not a bad one.