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McCain and Obama court Latinos, carefully

Dante Chinni

Posted: 07.15.2008 / 8:13 AM PDT

Both John McCain and Barack Obama took time in the past few days to speak before the National Council of La Raza, a Latino civil rights group that met in San Diego. For both men the trip was a chance to show their interest in Latinos and their issues.

It was also very necessary. Latinos are the largest and fastest growing minority group in America. They make up about 15 percent of the population and about 9 percent of eligible voters.

Some key battleground states in the West and the South have large Hispanic populations. For instance, in New Mexico, 37 percent of the population is Hispanic. In Florida, the figure is 14 percent. In both Colorado and Nevada, it’s 12 percent.

In Patchwork Nation, counties with a large number of Hispanics and recent immigrants are classified as “Immigration Nation.” In many states, such counties are scattered around the country where the vote could be close, including Iowa and Missouri.

But courting the Latino vote also means wandering into the issue thicket that is immigration in the United States. The Republican Party learned this last year when a White House-backed proposal for “comprehensive immigration reform,” which included a path to citizenship for many illegal immigrants, sparked a firestorm. Conservatives attacked it as “amnesty.”

So how do Patchwork Nation’s 11 community types feel about cracking down on immigration? The question, from a 2004 Annenberg survey, specifically asked whether the federal government should do more, the same, or less to restrict immigration to the United States.

The most striking finding: The majority of respondents in every community type said they wanted more done. But feelings were stronger in some places than others. Slightly more than 54 percent of people in big cities (“Industrial Metropolis”) wanted the federal government to do more while more than 70 percent of those who live in areas with high African-American populations (“Minority Central”) felt the same way.

That “Minority Central” areas had the strongest desire to restrict immigration is significant. Much has been made about the tensions between African-Americans and Hispanics, and such results lend credence to those feelings.

“This plays into a big emerging theme in the social-science literature regarding cracks in the rainbow [coalition],” writes Patchwork contributor Professor Jim Gimpel of the University of Maryland.
“Minority Central” locations also have the lowest median household income of any of Patchwork Nation’s 11 community types. And often the workers closer to the bottom of the wage scale feel the most threatened by immigration.

In “Immigration Nation,” more than 63 percent said they would like to see the federal government do more to tighten the rules.

Is that a backlash against local immigration in immigrant-rich places?

Possibly, but not necessarily. Overall, the desire for more restrictive immigration rules even extended to Hispanics who were surveyed. A plurality of Hispanics (43 percent) said they wanted the federal government to do more.

It all suggests that the more lenient immigration positions of Senators Obama and McCain, who both support comprehensive immigration reform, are a bit out-of-step with the American people – though lately McCain has said he would support such reform only after the country has achieved its goal of securing the US border with Mexico.

But in 2008, there are a couple of provisos on these data points.

First, the survey was taken before the immigration dust-ups of the past few years – including Hispanic marches around the country and last year’s immigration reform debate. Attitudes may have hardened against Hispanics in some locales since then and Hispanics’ attitudes toward government intervention may have changed, too.

Second, today’s economic woes may affect the immigration debate. Historically, opposition to immigration has risen as the economy worsens.

One result is apparent: Obama mentioned immigration reform in his speech to La Raza, but he tried to focus on healthcare and small business. In his speech to the Latino group, McCain emphasized the economy as issue No. 1 and also assured the audience that he hadn’t changed his position on comprehensive reform.
The message: Both men will be careful about how they handle a hot-button issue as they court these important voters.