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Where economic hardship is acute, and why that counts in ’08

Dante Chinni

Posted: 06.16.2008 / 11:42 AM PDT

Now that the 2008 general election campaign is under way, there can be little doubt that the No. 1 issue is “the economy, stupid”… again. Across the country, voters voice concerns about their financial and job situations as well as the national economy’s downward track.What does it mean for Barack Obama and John McCain as they begin jousting for votes?

Today, Patchwork Nation unveils its monthly Economic Hardship Index to help answer that question. The index comes from crunching county-level unemployment, foreclosure, and gasoline price figures. Those numbers give us hardship scores for each county. Mapping each county’s score then provides an understanding of where in America the hardship is greatest and what it could mean for the fall campaign.

The hardship map shows which counties are bearing the brunt of the tough times – the darker the county on the map, the more serious its economic distress. In the industrial Midwest – Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – many counties are experiencing medium to high amounts of economic trouble. So are counties in Iowa and Missouri.

Both campaigns view these six states as battlegrounds and their economic difficulties signal that they are more likely to want a change in leadership. Sticking with the current economic program, as Senator McCain is largely promising, is a tough sell in these places. Senator Obama may get a boost as a result.If the map has bright spots for McCain, they may be in Pennsylvania and Virginia, two other states that both campaigns say are competitive but appear to be weathering the current economic troubles a bit better.Through the lens of the Patchwork Nation community types, the economic indicators look different.

Taking the biggest hits are community types that have been battlegrounds in past elections: counties with high concentrations of service workers (“Service Worker Centers”) and counties that have experienced rapid growth (“Boom Towns”). Both community types had close presidential votes in 2004, but they tilted Republican.

The economic challenges in each, however, are not the same.

Joblessness is the main problem in the nation’s “Service Worker Centers.” Here, the unemployment rate is the highest among all community types at 6.3 percent. That figure is from March, the latest county data available, but it is still nearly a point higher than the current national rate of 5.5 percent. Plus, higher gasoline prices affect these service worker hubs to a greater degree because residents on average have lower household incomes and must do more driving.

In the nation’s “Boom Towns,” foreclosures are the key issue. The housing crunch has hammered many of these counties, which have swelled since 2000. But the hardship is not spread out evenly. For instance, Eagle County, Colo., the “Boom Town” that Patchwork Nation is tracking through the campaign, is faring rather well, while Clark County, Nev., is taking a beating. With nearly 1 of every 100 of its homes in some state of foreclosure, Clark (home of Las Vegas) tops our list of most distressed counties.

Among the other community types, the nation’s aging communities (“Emptying Nests”) are also having tougher times because of higher unemployment. These places tend to be reliably Republican and will probably be again in 2008, but their woes could depress turnout among Republican voters.

At the same time, the nation’s wealthy suburbs (“Monied ’Burbs”) – a campaign battleground – has the lowest hardship score of any of the 11 community types. This is mostly because its unemployment rate stands at less than 5 percent. That may bode well for McCain if he can make the campaign about issues besides the economy.

However, the foreclosure numbers in these areas are still relatively high, and if the mortgage crisis worsens, the “Monied ’Burbs” could see their scores climb in the months ahead.