Obama sees a sunny day ahead in Oregon
Dante Chinni
Posted: 05.15.2008 / 8:24 AM PDT
After a tough night in West Virginia on Tuesday and a difficult upcoming contest in Kentucky, Sen. Barack Obama believes he sees a ray of light coming from the cloudy Pacific Northwest in Oregon.
Senator Obama hopes next Tuesday’s Oregon primary (held the same day as Kentucky’s) will blunt whatever momentum Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has gained. The latest polls from the Beaver State give Obama reason to feel good, showing him ahead by some 14 points.
On the picturesque Oregon coast, people in Lincoln City, our Patchwork Nation “Service Worker Center” community, say Obama is likely to capture a win there.
It’s mostly because Obama’s “change” mantra is resonating with Lincoln City’s residents. “The people I’ve heard and have spoken with are thinking that [Senator Clinton] is representing the status quo of the Democratic Party of the last 30 years. There’s not much enthusiasm for extending that apparent mind-set,” Beth Gerl, a Lincoln City resident wrote in an e-mail. “Obama’s acknowledgment of ‘broken systems’ seems to have engaged the minds of many.”
Libby Durbin, a retiree and writer in the community, reports that her friends and acquaintances have strongly supported Obama for a while. But it appears that the Clinton campaign isn’t ready to let her or Lincoln City go without a fight.
Ms. Durbin says she received a robocall from former President Bill Clinton in the past week and a call from a Clinton campaign worker in the past few days. In addition she’s been polled by phone twice in the past two weeks.
The Clinton campaign’s outreach to Durbin makes sense. She’s white, retired, and living in one of Patchwork Nation’s “Service Worker Centers.” That’s the kind of voter Clinton has been doing well with in recent primaries.
“Service Worker Centers” are filled with people living closer to the margins – who are more likely to be hurt by America’s economic downturn. In Oregon, where the unemployment rate is relatively high at 5.7 percent, that’s especially true. As our Lincoln City bloggers have written, the economy is weighing heavily on people’s minds here.
So why is Clinton, who carried “Service Worker Center” counties in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, having trouble in Oregon’s service centers? It’s partly because on the left coast a more liberal mind-set infuses residents’ economic concerns, leading many to Obama’s camp.
Lincoln City radio host Roger Robertson, for instance, notes how the war informs the thought in these parts.
“The war and the economy are still No. 1 and No. 2 on people’s minds. The war is the root cause of our poor economy. Hearing people want us out of Iraq, NOW, not tomorrow or in six months but NOW,” Mr. Robertson wrote in an e-mail. “I’m looking for a strong win in Oregon by Barack Obama.”
The differences between Lincoln City and the Rust Belt communities also highlight how “Service Worker Centers” can be broken into two subsets. One is based in more rural communities or places transitioning from an industrial base (such as those in recent primaries) and another kind is rooted in tourism and travel (such as Lincoln City).
In general elections, these differences don’t have as much significance as voters tend to coalesce around a set of principles and policies - particularly this year when the economic news is not good. But in primaries, they matter more. For instance, in “Service Worker Centers” focused on tourism, residents are particularly concerned about a broken political system and Obama benefits.
How deep is the pull toward Obama in Lincoln City? Well, nearly all of Patchwork Nation’s contacts there said they are voting for Obama. Durbin noted that in the Loyalty Days parade (a celebration of local patriotism) in the nearby city of Newport, there was a group of Obama supporters marching, but none for Clinton.
Kip Ward, one of Patchwork Nation’s Lincoln City bloggers, said he expects Obama to win the state by double digits and that he knows of at least one person who will vote for Clinton because she believes Obama will get the nomination. “Her logic? She wants to have voted for the first woman candidate and for the first black candidate,” Mr. Ward wrote in an e-mail.
Lincoln City Mayor Lori Hollingsworth, however, says she expects a more mixed picture Tuesday. “I have heard many people voting for Obama and many voting for Hillary. There are also many people on the fence. They want the most successful candidate against John McCain,” she wrote in an e-mail.
The fence-sitters in Oregon occupy a unique place. The state votes by mail, which means that many Oregonians have voted already and the number of voters that can be persuaded by last-minute electioneering is smaller than in any other state.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:43 pm PDT
It’s time for change. I’m 74 years old and this is the first time I’ve been so dissatisfied with this government. I am voting for Obama, even though I’ve been a registered Republican for 40 years.
May 15th, 2008 at 6:27 pm PDT
The Democratic Party is not going to ignore 2.3 million voters in Michigan and Florida, and Barack Obama is a long ways away from the 2209 committed delegates it will take to win.
Ask yourself who is going to win the November election? Is it Barack Obama with his primary victories in the Republicans strongholds like Wyoming, Idaho, and Oklahoma, or is it Hillary Clinton who has carried the key swing states of Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Jersey? When was the last time a Democrat won the election without taking Florida or Ohio or Michigan or Pennsylvania or West Virginia?
Ask yourself who is going to move the Democratic agenda forward? Is it Barack Obama and his blank canvas, compromise and vote “present” strategy or is it Hillary Clinton who will not take no for an answer?
Ask yourself who might have skeletons in the closet yet to emerge? Is it Barack Obama with the US Attorney who has already convicted a number of Chicago pols and is actively investigating Obama associates Tony Rezko and Nadhmi Auchi? Or is it Hillary Clinton who has learned to live and thrive with critics unsuccessfully scrutinizing her for decades.
Hillary did not just beat Obama in West Virginia, she trounced him. 40 point margin of victory, approaching a 3:1 ratio of votes. Obama wins NC by half these margins and the press is calling it an overwhelming victory, but Clinton comes back with an unprecedented margin of victory and all the prss can say is “Wins handily”? Give me a break. Maybe you should ask BHO if he needs another pillow while you are at it.
The track record of Democrats who win Iowa and loose New Hampshire is abysmal. Think McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Dean. Iowa has an uncanny ability to pick big time losers who drag the rest of the party down with them. Bill Clinton lost Iowa but went on to win New Hampshire and led our country to 8 years of peace and prosperity.
Orgenonians whot want to advance a progressive agenda need to vote for Hillary Clinton. Effect acadamic Barack Obama running against American war hero John McCain will not carry Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, or Kentucky. There is a real risk that he won’t even carry Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Jersey. Hillary Clinton will win and she will not take “No” for an answer on the environment, health care, fair trade and equal rights.
May 15th, 2008 at 11:18 pm PDT
I am curious. If the scenario was reversed and Clinton was ahead by 130 delegates or so, what would she be saying to Obama? My guess is that she would be questioning his loyalty to the party while worrying about the effect of a futile candidacy on the November election. In short, everything is politics.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:27 am PDT
It seems that Oregon proves a point. Not all poor, uneducated (does that mean not “college” educated…and this is not necessarily uneducated) are racist in their views. The fact is that West Virginia has a history of racism and the ***. I think there is a difference in uneducated and ignorant. It appears that the good folks of Oregon, those that do not have a college education or wealth, are not rascist and certainly not ignorant. The folks in West Virginia in the same economic condition and with the same educational background are racist and ignorant.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:27 am PDT
We, and the majority of Latino’s and Catholics too (like the rest of Hillary’s impressive voter base), are with Hillary. I agree with what im4america says (May 15th, 2008 at 6:27 pm EDT), and a qualified woman President (& best qualified among the candidates) is truly remarkable change. Obama still needs seasoning and it is just a matter of time before he becomes president if he succeeds as VP….Hillary has overcome all the pundits against her and she is more than just words, she can deliver. Did you see Biden, yesterday re-utilize the words “could obliterate” Iran if absolutely necessary. Enough of Obama blaming “politics” for not wanting to answer for his lack of judgement - and now he’ll whine about his lack of sufficient across-the-board voter base and blame it on “politics” or you know something else. WORST CASE SCENARIO HE SHOULD OFFER THE VP TO HILLARY SINCE SHE HAS EARNED IT, WILL HELP DELIVER THE PRESIDENCY TO DEMOCRATS AND WHAT BIGGER CHANGE IS THERE THAN A US WOMAN VP ? (BUT OF COURSE THE PUNDITS NEVER LOOK IT AT FROM THAT ANGLE - IF IT COMES TO THAT WE’LL SEE WHERE OBAMA’s JUDGEMENT IS AT?)
May 16th, 2008 at 11:26 am PDT
Obama has the ability to change the country for the generations to come and the so called super-delegates are still siting at the fence. Are they waiting that he turns water into wine or that he throw theirs people money ad their heads?
May 16th, 2008 at 6:33 pm PDT
Do not be duped by the mainstream media. If the mainstream media bothered reporting objectively you might be surprised what there is to learn about Mr. Obama. Before ignorantly casting a vote for “change” research Mr. Obama’s voting record (he usually votes “present” rather than taking a stance). Research his associates and who gives him money. Do not be ignorant. Do not be duped. Obama is a man of many words but few actions. Don’t be duped by the word “change.” As they say, watch what you ask for as you might get it.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:02 am PDT
[…] counties in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, having trouble in Oregon??s service centers? …http://patchworknation.csmonitor.com/csmstaff/2008/0515/obama-sees-a-sunny-day-ahead-in-oregon/U.S. economy on tightrope between inflation, recessionWith the hodgepodge of indicators that now […]
June 4th, 2008 at 10:46 am PDT
[…] 5.7 percent, that??s especially true. As our Lincoln City bloggers have written, the economy is …http://patchworknation.csmonitor.com/csmstaff/2008/0515/obama-sees-a-sunny-day-ahead-in-oregon/Job-Hunt.Org: State Employment Offices by StateIf you lost your job and have a question about […]
October 1st, 2008 at 12:21 pm PDT
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April 27th, 2009 at 7:49 am PDT
I agree with you 100% - things happen for a reason. I found this by accident and noticed that we have some things in common. Thats what I love about the Internet, every blog is like a box of chocolates
Thanks - Great blog.