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New Democrats may lift Obama in Pennsylvania

Dante Chinni

Posted: 03.31.2008 / 11:26 AM PDT

Pennsylvanians have rushed to add themselves to the voter-registration rolls in time to cast ballots in the state’s April 22 primary. By the time all the numbers are in, it’s likely that the Keystone State will have added more than 100,000 registered Democratic voters in March alone.

Considering that the state has more than 4 million registered Democrats, that number may not be as dramatic as it first seems.

But the flood of new Democratic registrants does signal increased voter enthusiasm in a state that has not had a competitive primary in decades. Many are recent party-switchers since Pennsylvania rules allow only registered Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary.

Drumming up enthusiasm is crucial to generating high voter turnout, which is especially pivotal in a primary.

The Monitor analyzed the state’s voter registration figures through the lens of its Patchwork Nation project. The project uses demographic information to divide the American electorate into 11 types of voter communities in all 3,142 US counties.

Democratic political consultants in the Philadelphia area say it’s difficult to identify how the entire state will break down for the party’s two remaining presidential contenders, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But some areas appear to favor one candidate over the other. Senator Obama is likely to run strong in Philadelphia County (labeled Industrial Metropolis in Patchwork Nation), Centre County (Campus and Careers) and, perhaps, Montgomery County (Monied ‘Burbs) in the Philly suburbs. Philadelphia and Montgomery counties are two of the most populous in the state.

In total those three counties had more than 10,000 new Democratic voters sign up between Feb. 26 and March 17. An additional 10,300 voters switched to register as Democrats in those counties during that time.

That doesn’t mean those counties automatically have 20,000 more people who will vote for Obama, political observers caution.

“I could not say for sure that Obama is taking 65 percent of those new registrations in Montgomery County,” says Ken Smukler, a Democratic consultant who’s not associated with a campaign. “His registration program is a volunteer program. They are getting signatures where they can and there are a lot of them in Montgomery, but it’s not a targeted organized program.”

The counties likely to be fertile ground for Senator Clinton are more numerous and less populous. Consultants say they would expect her to do well in the suburban counties of Westmoreland, Cambria, Lackawanna, and Luzerne (dubbed Service Worker Centers).

As we wrote here last week the primary tallies in nearby states Wisconsin and Ohio indicate such Service Worker Centers will be key in the Pennsylvania vote, and Obama is seeking to close the gap with Clinton in these counties.

He embarked on a six-day bus tour across Pennsylvania last Friday and picked up an endorsement from Sen. Bob Casey (D), the state’s junior senator. Senator Casey, who comes from a political dynasty in the state, is campaigning with Obama to reach out to blue-collar workers. They are scheduled to visit those four service-sector counties.

Obama will also have to wrest support from Clinton in Berks, Northampton, and Lehigh counties (classified as Monied ‘Burbs).

In the seven counties thought to be favorable toward Clinton, 5,700 new Democrats registered from Feb. 26 through March 17. In the same time period, 9,300 people have switched to become Democratic voters. These figures show that counties leaning toward Clinton added about 15,000 voters, experts say, which is about 5,000 fewer people than Obama-friendly counties picked up.

It would suggest that enthusiasm is on Obama’s side. Voter turnout may follow … or not.

The latest polls from Pennsylvania show Clinton ahead by double digits. For sure, the landscape is fluid in Pennsylvania. Beyond the 10 counties that appear to favor either Clinton or Obama, the rest of the state is “a muddle,” says political ad man Neil Oxman, who’s not working for either campaign.